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On the Present Halting of Global Warming†
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA
Received: 28 January 2013; in revised form: 15 April 2013 / Accepted: 15 April 2013 / Published: 3 May 2013
Abstract: The rise in global average temperature over the last century has halted since roughly the year 2000, despite the fact that the release of CO2 into the atmosphere is still increasing. It is suggested here that this interruption has been caused by the suspension of the near linear (+ 0.5 °C/100 years or 0.05 °C/10 years) temperature increase over the last two centuries, due to recovery from the Little Ice Age, by a superposed multi-decadal oscillation of a 0.2 °C amplitude and a 50~60 year period, which reached its positive peak in about the year 2000—a halting similar to those that occurred around 1880 and 1940. Because both the near linear change and the multi-decadal oscillation are likely to be natural changes (the recovery from the Little Ice Age (LIA) and an oscillation related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively), they must be carefully subtracted from temperature data before estimating the effects of CO2.
Keywords: global warming; Little Ice Age; multi-decadal oscillation
- Supplementary File 1:
Editorial: Invitation for Discussion of a Paper Published in Climate: Akasofu, S.-I. On the Present Halting of Global Warming. Climate 2013, 1, 4–11 (Shu-Kun Lin and Delia Costache)
(PDF, 20 KB)
- Supplementary File 2:
Comment on: Akasofu, S.-I. On the Present Halting of Global Warming. Climate 2013, 1, 4–11 (Dana A. Nuccitelli, John P. Abraham, Rasmus E. Benestad and Scott A. Mandia)
(PDF, 306 KB)
- Supplementary File 3:
Editorial: Research on Climate Change and Its Impacts Needs Freedom of Research (Nicole Mölders)
(PDF, 168 KB)
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Cite This Article
MDPI and ACS Style
Akasofu, S.-I. On the Present Halting of Global Warming. Climate 2013, 1, 4-11.
Akasofu S-I. On the Present Halting of Global Warming. Climate. 2013; 1(1):4-11.
Akasofu, Syun-Ichi. 2013. "On the Present Halting of Global Warming." Climate 1, no. 1: 4-11.