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ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2013, 2(4), 1106-1121; doi:10.3390/ijgi2041106
Article

Spatio-Temporal Occurrence Modeling of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1: A Case Study in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

1,2,* , 3
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1 Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, 1901 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA 2 East-West Center, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848, USA 3 Department of Tropical Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, 3190 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA 4 University of Hawai'i at Manoa Library, 2550 McCarthy Mall, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 27 September 2013 / Revised: 14 November 2013 / Accepted: 22 November 2013 / Published: 28 November 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue GIS in Public Health)
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Abstract

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 poses severe threats to both animals and humans. Investigating where, when and why the disease occurs is important to help animal health authorities develop effective control policies. This study takes into account spatial and temporal occurrence of HPAI H5N1 in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. A two-stage procedure was used: (1) logistic regression modeling to identify and quantify factors influencing the occurrence of HPAI H5N1; and (2) a geostatistical approach to develop monthly predictive maps. The results demonstrated that higher average monthly temperatures and poultry density in combination with lower average monthly precipitation, humidity in low elevation areas, roughly from November to January and April to June, contribute to the higher occurrence of HPAI H5N1. Provinces near the Gulf of Tonkin, including Hai Phong, Hai Duong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh and Ninh Binh are areas with higher probability of occurrence of HPAI H5N1.
Keywords: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1; temperature; precipitation; humidity; poultry density; elevation; logistic regression; Bayesian kriging; Red River Delta Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1; temperature; precipitation; humidity; poultry density; elevation; logistic regression; Bayesian kriging; Red River Delta
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Tran, C.C.; Yost, R.S.; Yanagida, J.F.; Saksena, S.; Fox, J.; Sultana, N. Spatio-Temporal Occurrence Modeling of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1: A Case Study in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2013, 2, 1106-1121.

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