Next Article in Journal
An Examination of the Influence of Household Financial Decision Making on the US Housing Market Crisis
Next Article in Special Issue
Exploring Intra-Urban Accessibility and Impacts of Pollution Policies with an Agent-Based Simulation Platform: GaMiroD
Previous Article in Journal
Feral Information Systems Creation as Sensemaking
Previous Article in Special Issue
The Importance of Being Hybrid for Spatial Epidemic Models:A Multi-Scale Approach
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Systems 2015, 3(4), 348-377; doi:10.3390/systems3040348

A Modular Modelling Framework for Hypotheses Testing in the Simulation of Urbanisation

1
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, London W1T 4TJ, UK
2
UMR 8504 Géographie-cités and The Institute of Complex Systems (ISC-PIF), Paris 75006, France
3
Faculty of Geoscience, University of Lausanne, Lausanne CH-1015, Switzerland
4
UMR 6266 IDEES, CNRS, University of Rouen, Rouen 76000, France
5
Department of Geography, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris 75005, France
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Koen H. van Dam and Rémy Courdier
Received: 25 August 2015 / Revised: 30 October 2015 / Accepted: 24 November 2015 / Published: 27 November 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Agent-Based Modelling of City Systems)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2319 KB, uploaded 27 November 2015]   |  

Abstract

In this paper, we present a modelling experiment developed to study systems of cities and processes of urbanisation in large territories over long time spans. Building on geographical theories of urban evolution, we rely on agent-based models to 1) formalise complementary and alternative hypotheses of urbanisation and 2) explore their ability to simulate observed patterns in a virtual laboratory. The paper is therefore divided into two sections : an overview of the mechanisms implemented to represent competing hypotheses used to simulate urban evolution; and an evaluation of the resulting model structures in their ability to simulate—efficiently and parsimoniously—a system of cities (between 1000 and 2000 cities in the Former Soviet Union) over several periods of time (before and after the crash of the USSR). We do so using a modular framework of model-building and evolutionary algorithms for the calibration of several model structures. This project aims at tackling equifinality in systems dynamics by confronting different mechanisms with similar evaluation criteria. It enables the identification of the best-performing models with respect to the chosen criteria by scanning automatically the parameter space along with the space of model structures (the different combinations of mechanisms). View Full-Text
Keywords: system of cities; ABM; simulation; former soviet union; equifinality; multimodelling system of cities; ABM; simulation; former soviet union; equifinality; multimodelling
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Cottineau, C.; Reuillon, R.; Chapron, P.; Rey-Coyrehourcq, S.; Pumain, D. A Modular Modelling Framework for Hypotheses Testing in the Simulation of Urbanisation. Systems 2015, 3, 348-377.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Systems EISSN 2079-8954 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top