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Systems 2015, 3(4), 309-329; doi:10.3390/systems3040309

The Importance of Being Hybrid for Spatial Epidemic Models:A Multi-Scale Approach

1
UMR 8504 Géographie-cités, CNRS, Universities of Paris 1 and Paris 7, Paris 75006, France
2
LMAH, University of Le Havre, Le Havre 76600, France
3
UMR 5505 IRIT, CNRS, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole, Toulouse 31000, France
4
UMR 7300 ESPACE, CNRS, Univ. Nice Sophia Antipolis, Avignon University, Aix Marseille University, Nice 06204, France
5
UMR 6266 IDEES, CNRS, University of Rouen, Rouen 76000, France
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Koen H. van Dam and Rémy Courdier
Received: 17 September 2015 / Accepted: 16 November 2015 / Published: 20 November 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Agent-Based Modelling of City Systems)
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Abstract

This work addresses the spread of a disease within an urban system, definedas a network of interconnected cities. The first step consists of comparing two differentapproaches: a macroscopic one, based on a system of coupled Ordinary DifferentialEquations (ODE) Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) systems exploiting populations onnodes and flows on edges (so-called metapopulational model), and a hybrid one, couplingODE SIR systems on nodes and agents traveling on edges. Under homogeneous conditions(mean field approximation), this comparison leads to similar results on the outputs on whichwe focus (the maximum intensity of the epidemic, its duration and the time of the epidemicpeak). However, when it comes to setting up epidemic control strategies, results rapidlydiverge between the two approaches, and it appears that the full macroscopic model is notcompletely adapted to these questions. In this paper, we focus on some control strategies,which are quarantine, avoidance and risk culture, to explore the differences, advantages anddisadvantages of the two models and discuss the importance of being hybrid when modelingand simulating epidemic spread at the level of a whole urban system. View Full-Text
Keywords: agent-based modeling; city systems; disease spread; mobility; model coupling;metapopulation; network; ODE agent-based modeling; city systems; disease spread; mobility; model coupling;metapopulation; network; ODE
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Banos, A.; Corson, N.; Gaudou, B.; Laperrière, V.; Coyrehourcq, S.R. The Importance of Being Hybrid for Spatial Epidemic Models:A Multi-Scale Approach. Systems 2015, 3, 309-329.

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