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J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(3), 33; doi:10.3390/jmse5030033

Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems

1
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Docklands 3008, Australia
2
Bureau of Meteorology, 300 Elizabeth St, Darlinghurst 1300, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 30 May 2017 / Revised: 22 July 2017 / Accepted: 25 July 2017 / Published: 1 August 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Sea Levels, Impacts and Adaptation)
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Abstract

A system for providing routine seven-day forecasts of sea level observable at tide gauge locations is described and evaluated. Forecast time series are aggregated from well-established operational systems of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; although following some adjustments these systems are only quasi-complimentary. Target applications are routine coastal decision processes under non-extreme conditions. The configuration aims to be relatively robust to operational realities such as version upgrades, data gaps and metadata ambiguities. Forecast skill is evaluated against hourly tide gauge observations. Characteristics of the bias correction term are demonstrated to be primarily static in time, with time varying signals showing regional coherence. This simple approach to exploiting existing complex systems can offer valuable levels of skill at a range of Australian locations. The prospect of interpolation between observation sites and exploitation of lagged-ensemble uncertainty estimates could be meaningfully pursued. Skill characteristics define a benchmark against which new operational sea level forecasting systems can be measured. More generally, an aggregation approach may prove to be optimal for routine sea level forecast services given the physically inhomogeneous processes involved and ability to incorporate ongoing improvements and extensions of source systems. View Full-Text
Keywords: forecasting; sea level; tides; Australia; operational oceanography forecasting; sea level; tides; Australia; operational oceanography
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Taylor, A.; Brassington, G.B. Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 33.

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