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Environments 2017, 4(1), 10; doi:10.3390/environments4010010

Uncertainty Impact on Water Management Analysis of Open Water Reservoir

Faculty of Civil Engineering, Institute of Landscape Water Management, Brno University of Technology, Brno 602 00, Czech Republic
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Academic Editors: Luigi Berardi and Daniele Laucelli
Received: 29 November 2016 / Revised: 23 January 2017 / Accepted: 26 January 2017 / Published: 4 February 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Data-Modelling Applications in Water System Management)
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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to use a methodology to introduce uncertainty of hydrological and operational input data into mathematical models needed for the design and operation of reservoirs. The application of uncertainty to input data is calculated, with the reservoir volume being affected by these uncertainties. The values of outflows from the reservoir and hydrological reliability are equally affected. The simulation model of the reservoir behavior was used, which allows to evaluate the results of solutions and helps to reduce, for example, the cost of dam construction, the risk of poor design of reservoir volumes, future operational risk of failures and reduce water shortages during the operation of water reservoirs. The practical application is carried out on the water management analysis of a reservoir in the Czech Republic. It was found that uncertainty of storage volume with 100% reliability achieved ±4% to ±6% values and the subsequent reliability uncertainty is in the value interval of ±0.2% to ±0.3%. View Full-Text
Keywords: uncertainty; open water reservoir; Monte Carlo; reservoir simulation model; reliability; storage volume; reservoir design uncertainty; open water reservoir; Monte Carlo; reservoir simulation model; reliability; storage volume; reservoir design
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Marton, D.; Paseka, S. Uncertainty Impact on Water Management Analysis of Open Water Reservoir. Environments 2017, 4, 10.

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