Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Conceptual Framework
2.3. Inputs and Model Setup
2.3.1. Model Architecture
2.3.2. Land-Use Change Drivers
2.3.3. Data
2.3.4. Demand for Land Use
2.4. Model Evaluation
2.5. Scenario Development
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. Land-Use Changes and Drivers
3.2. Land-Use Change Rules
3.3. Model Evaluation
4. Conclusions and Recommendations
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Description | Dataset | Sources * | Scale/Resolution |
---|---|---|---|---|
Population | Gridded population dataset | Census for 1986 & 2007; GPW | CSA, FAO | Sub-district; 1 km |
Livestock | Gridded livestock dataset | Gridded livestock (GLW) 2007, 2014 | FAO | 5 km |
Distance to roads | Euclidean distance to major roads | Roads | ERA | 30 m |
Distance to markets | Euclidean distance to major towns | Markets | FAO-SRDN | 30 m |
Land cover map | Land cover maps | Landsat TM (1986 & 2009) | Teferi et al [24] | 30 m |
Settlement maps | Topographic map with settlement locations | Topo1984; Landsat | EMA, GEE | 1:50,000; 30 m |
Crop map | Map of croplands in the Amhara region | Cultivated land | BoA, MoARD | 250 m |
Distance to water | Euclidean distance to water sources | Water bodies | MoWE | 30 m |
Slope and elevation | Elevation (DEM) and slope (derived from DEM) | DEM | USGS | 90 m |
Soil type | Soil types | Soil group | FAO/FGGD [38] | 5 arc min |
Precipitation | Average annual precipitation | Precipitation data | MoWE | Annual average |
Distance from forest edge | Distance from forest edge | Distance from forest edge | land-use map | 30 m |
Variable | Estimated Value |
---|---|
Cultivation requirement | 1.17 ha/household |
Settlement requirement | 0.25 ha/household |
Plantation (for fire wood, housing) requirement | 0.06 ha/household (about 1/20th of cultivation/household), field survey |
Grassland (grazing) requirement | 0.25 ha/livestock |
1986 | Natural Woody Vegetation | Plantation Forest | Cultivated Land | Grassland | Others | Total 2009 (km2 (%)) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | |||||||
Natural Woody Vegetation | 6.59 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 2.05 | 0.56 | 11.58 | |
(2.22) | (0.00) | (0.80) | (0.69) | (0.19) | (3.90) | ||
Plantation Forest | 1.40 | 0.89 | 3.77 | 3.86 | 0.18 | 10.1 | |
(0.47) | (0.30) | (1.27) | (1.30) | (0.06) | (3.40) | ||
Cultivated Land | 9.50 | 0.00 | 150.58 | 45.07 | 1.27 | 206.42 | |
(3.20) | (0.00) | (50.70) | (15.18) | (0.42) | (69.50) | ||
Grassland | 25.84 | 0.00 | 4.51 | 20.87 | 11.74 | 62.96 | |
(8.70) | (0.00) | (1.52) | (7.02) | (4.00) | (21.20) | ||
Others | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.68 | 4.78 | 5.94 | |
(0.05) | (0.00) | (0.11) | (0.23) | (1.60) | (2.00) | ||
Total 1986 (km2 (%)) | 43.48 | 0.89 | 161.57 | 72.53 | 18.50 | 297.00 | |
(14.64) | (0.30) | (54.40) | (24.42) | (6.20) | (100.00) |
Land Use | Pop. | Slope | Elev. | Dist. to Settlement | Dist. To Roads | Dist. to Market | Livestock | Dist. To Water | Dist. to Forest Edge | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variables | ||||||||||
Natural woody vegetation | −0.23 | −0.60 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.04 | −0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.84 | |
Plantation forest | 0.14 | 0.69 | 0.39 | −0.52 | −0.28 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | |
Cultivated land | 0.79 | 0.65 | 0.02 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.52 | 0.04 | −0.05 | 0.001 | |
Grassland | −0.40 | 0.68 | 0.78 | −0.54 | −0.03 | −0.01 | 0.23 | −0.31 | 0.04 | |
Others | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.001 | −0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.002 |
LU-Drivers | Rotated Component Loadings | Communality Estimates | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | PC4 | PC5 | ||
Population | 0.887 | −0.227 | 0.418 | −0.147 | 0.281 | 0.946 |
Distance to market | −0.718 | 0.005 | 0.145 | −0.020 | 0.127 | 0.864 |
Distance to road | −0.135 | 0.001 | 0.889 | 0.308 | 0.054 | 0.885 |
Slope | 0.741 | −0.252 | 0.161 | −0.312 | 0.319 | 0.939 |
Elevation | 0.010 | 0.929 | 0.458 | 0.208 | 0.121 | 0.932 |
Livestock | 0.320 | 0.721 | 0.120 | 0.089 | 0.073 | 0.786 |
Distance to settlement | −0.753 | −0.549 | −0.644 | 0.078 | −0.057 | 0.906 |
Distance to water | −0.247 | 0.114 | 0.324 | 0.096 | 0.895 | 0.917 |
Soil type | 0.260 | −0.022 | 0.081 | 0.069 | 0.151 | 0.671 |
Precipitation | 0.253 | 0.001 | 0.059 | 0.066 | 0.173 | 0.681 |
Distance to forest edge | 0.078 | 0.002 | 0.013 | 0.921 | 0.091 | 0.884 |
Initial eigenvalues | 3.290 | 1.880 | 1.810 | 1.240 | 1.190 | - |
Variance (%) | 29.910 | 17.090 | 16.450 | 11.270 | 10.820 | - |
Cumulative variance (%) | 29.910 | 47.000 | 63.450 | 74.730 | 85.550 | - |
Land Use | Variable | Suitability Ranges | Initial Weight | Assigned Weight (After Calibration) | Direction of Relationship * |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Natural and Woody Vegetation | Distance to forest edge | >1000 m | 0.35 | 0.50 | Positive |
Distance to Roads | >5000 m | 0.25 | 0.20 | Positive | |
Slope | <40% | 0.20 | 0.20 | Negative | |
Distance to settlement | >3000 m | 0.20 | 0.10 | Positive | |
Cultivated land | Slope | <20% | 0.40 | 0.66 | - |
Distance to Settlement | <5000 m | 0.10 | 0.20 | Negative | |
Distance to market | <10,000 m | 0.20 | 0.10 | Negative | |
Distance to water | <10,000 m | 0.30 | 0.24 | Negative | |
Plantation Forest | Slope | 5%–40% | 0.20 | 0.30 | - |
Elevation | 1200–3400 m | 0.20 | 0.10 | - | |
Distance to settlement | <5000 m | 0.40 | 0.50 | Negative | |
Distance to road | <1000 m | 0.20 | 0.10 | Positive | |
Grassland | Slope | >10% | 0.30 | 0.30 | Positive |
Elevation | >2600 m.a.s.l. | 0.25 | 0.20 | Positive | |
Distance to water | <5000 m | 0.25 | 0.30 | Negative | |
Distance to settlement | <20,000 m | 0.20 | 0.20 | Negative |
Name of Algorithm | Component | Measure (%) |
---|---|---|
Quantity and Allocation Disagreement | Change simulated as “persistence“ (quantity disagreement) | 2.5 |
Persistence simulated as “change” (quantity disagreement) | 6.2 | |
Change simulated as “change to wrong category” (allocation disagreement) | 7.3 | |
Total Disagreement | 16.0 |
2009 | Natural Woody Vegetation | Plantation Forest | Cultivated Land | Grassland | Others | Total 2025 (km2 (%)) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | |||||||
Natural Woody Vegetation | 2.90 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 3.40 | |
(0.98) | (0.03) | (0.08) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (1.15) | ||
Plantation Forest | 4.00 | 8.60 | 9.39 | 8.02 | 0.31 | 30.30 | |
(1.35) | (2.90) | (3.16) | (2.7) | (0.10) | (10.20) | ||
Cultivated land | 1.80 | 0.40 | 196.00 | 28.34 | 2.76 | 229.00 | |
(0.60) | (0.13) | (66.00) | (9.54) | (0.93) | (77.10) | ||
Grassland | 2.10 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 24.90 | 0.33 | 28.50 | |
(0.70) | (0.20) | (0.20) | (8.40) | (0.11) | (9.60) | ||
Others | 0.78 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 1.60 | 2.44 | 5.40 | |
(0.26) | (0.13) | (0.07) | (0.50) | (0.82) | (1.82) | ||
Total 2009 (km2 (%)) | 11.58 | 10.10 | 206.42 | 62.96 | 5.94 | 297.00 | |
(3.90) | (3.40) | (69.50) | (21.20) | (2.00) | (100.00) |
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Share and Cite
Yalew, S.G.; Mul, M.L.; Van Griensven, A.; Teferi, E.; Priess, J.; Schweitzer, C.; Van Der Zaag, P. Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. Environments 2016, 3, 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments3030021
Yalew SG, Mul ML, Van Griensven A, Teferi E, Priess J, Schweitzer C, Van Der Zaag P. Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. Environments. 2016; 3(3):21. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments3030021
Chicago/Turabian StyleYalew, Seleshi G., Marloes L. Mul, Ann Van Griensven, Ermias Teferi, Joerg Priess, Christian Schweitzer, and Pieter Van Der Zaag. 2016. "Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin" Environments 3, no. 3: 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments3030021