Next Article in Journal / Special Issue
Influence of Flow Velocity on Tsunami Loss Estimation
Previous Article in Journal
Structure of Volatile Conduits beneath Gorely Volcano (Kamchatka) Revealed by Local Earthquake Tomography
Previous Article in Special Issue
Experimental Investigation of Debris-Induced Loading in Tsunami-Like Flood Events
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Geosciences 2017, 7(4), 112; doi:10.3390/geosciences7040112

Possible Factors Promoting Car Evacuation in the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Revealed by Analysing a Large-Scale Questionnaire Survey in Kesennuma City

1
Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aoba, Aramaki-Aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, Japan
2
International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aoba, Aramaki-Aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, Japan
3
TOKEN C.E.E Consultants Co., Ltd., 1-15-6, Kita-Ohtsuka, Toshima-ku, Tokyo 170-0004, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 8 September 2017 / Revised: 24 October 2017 / Accepted: 1 November 2017 / Published: 6 November 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Interdisciplinary Geosciences Perspectives of Tsunami)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [5310 KB, uploaded 8 November 2017]   |  

Abstract

Excessive car evacuation can cause severe traffic jams that can lead to large numbers of casualties during tsunami disasters. Investigating the possible factors that lead to unnecessary car evacuation can ensure smoother tsunami evacuations and mitigate casualty damages in future tsunami events. In this study, we quantitatively investigated the possible factors that promote car evacuation, including both necessary and unnecessary usages, by statistically analysing a large amount of data on actual tsunami evacuation behaviours surveyed in Kesennuma, where devastating damage occurred during the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami. A straightforward statistical analysis revealed a high percentage of car evacuations (approx. 50%); however, this fraction includes a high number of unnecessary usage events that were distinguished based on mode choice reasons. In addition, a binary logistic regression was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the effects of several factors and to identify the dominant factor that affected evacuation mode choice. The regression results suggested that the evacuation distance was the dominant factor for choosing car evacuation relative to other factors, such as age and sex. The cross-validation test of the regression model demonstrated that the considered factors were useful for decision making and the prediction of evacuation mode choice in the target area. View Full-Text
Keywords: tsunami evacuation; car evacuation; decision-makings; logistic regression tsunami evacuation; car evacuation; decision-makings; logistic regression
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Makinoshima, F.; Abe, Y.; Imamura, F.; Machida, G.; Takeshita, Y. Possible Factors Promoting Car Evacuation in the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Revealed by Analysing a Large-Scale Questionnaire Survey in Kesennuma City. Geosciences 2017, 7, 112.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Geosciences EISSN 2076-3263 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top