Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Model and Modeling Framework
2.2. Ensemble Forecasting System
2.3. Model Calibration
2.4. Forecasts Verification and Explicit Consideration of Uncertainty
2.5. Study Sites and Data
2.5.1. Nechako
2.5.2. Southwest Miramichi
2.5.3. Meteorological and Hydrological Data
3. Results
3.1. Model Calibration and Evaluation
3.2. Meteorological Forecasts Evaluation
3.3. Hydrological and Thermal Forecasts Evaluation
3.4. Uncertainty and Reliability of the Forecasts
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Discharge | Water Temperature | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year-Round | Summer | |||||||||||||
NS | Bias (m3/s) | Relative Bias | RMSE (°C) | Bias (°C) | RMSE (°C) | Bias (°C) | ||||||||
Period | NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR |
Calibration | 0.96 | 0.84 | 8.87 | −3.03 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 0.24 | −0.54 | 0.78 | 1.23 | 0.43 | −0.76 |
Validation | 0.86 | 0.72 | −10.4 | −18.6 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1.54 | 1.51 | 0.2 | 0.09 | 0.95 | 1.46 | 0.37 | 0.18 |
Hz1 | Hz2 | Hz3 | Hz4 | Hz5 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR | NECH | MIR | |
tmin (°C) | 3.30 | 1.97 | 3.50 | 2.14 | 3.70 | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.26 | 3.80 | 2.47 |
tmax (°C) | 1.60 | 1.35 | 1.50 | 1.42 | 1.60 | 1.53 | 1.60 | 1.66 | 1.80 | 1.81 |
pTot (mm) | 0.70 | 2.03 | 1.00 | 2.18 | 1.60 | 2.04 | 2.00 | 2.87 | 2.80 | 3.00 |
RS (MJ/m2) | 2.50 | 2.32 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.76 | 2.70 | 3.75 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
CC (0–1) | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.19 |
U (km/h) | 1.35 | 2.13 | 1.36 | 2.05 | 1.34 | 2.07 | 1.29 | 2.18 | 1.55 | 2.16 |
ea (mm Hg) | 3.17 | 1.24 | 3.10 | 1.19 | 3.04 | 1.19 | 2.96 | 1.22 | 3.06 | 1.28 |
Nechako | |||||
Hz1 | Hz2 | Hz3 | Hz4 | Hz5 | |
MAE (°C) | 0.49 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.68 |
Miramichi (LSWM) * | |||||
Hz1 | Hz2 | Hz3 | Hz4 | Hz5 | |
RMSE (°C) | 0.87 | 1.24 | 1.48 | - | - |
Bias | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | - | - |
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Ouellet-Proulx, S.; St-Hilaire, A.; Boucher, M.-A. Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems. Water 2017, 9, 457. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9070457
Ouellet-Proulx S, St-Hilaire A, Boucher M-A. Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems. Water. 2017; 9(7):457. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9070457
Chicago/Turabian StyleOuellet-Proulx, Sébastien, André St-Hilaire, and Marie-Amélie Boucher. 2017. "Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems" Water 9, no. 7: 457. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9070457