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Water 2017, 9(10), 776; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100776

Forecasting and Providing Warnings of Flash Floods for Ungauged Mountainous Areas Based on a Distributed Hydrological Model

1
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 10038, China
2
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3
Research Center on Flood & Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China
4
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Beijing 100038, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 18 August 2017 / Revised: 28 September 2017 / Accepted: 28 September 2017 / Published: 11 October 2017
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Abstract

Flash floods occur in mountainous catchments with short response times, which are among the most devastating natural hazards in China. This paper intends to forecast and provide warnings of flash floods timely and precisely using the flash flood warning system, which is established by a new distributed hydrological model (the China flash flood hydrological model, CNFF-HM). Two ungauged mountainous regions, Shunchang and Zherong, are chosen as the study areas. The CNFF-HM is calibrated in five well-monitored catchments. The parameters for the ungauged regions are estimated by regionalization. River water stage data and reservoir water stage data from Shunchang, and reservoir water stage data from Zherong are used to validate the model. The model performs well and the average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is above 0.8 for the five catchments. The validation shows the difference in the timing of flood peaks using the two types of water stage data is less than 1 h. The rising and declining trends of the floods correspond to the observed trends over the entire validation process. Furthermore, the flash flood warning system was effectively applied in flash flood event on 28 September 2016 in Zherong. Thus, the CNFF-HM with regionalization is effective in forecasting flash floods for ungauged mountainous regions. View Full-Text
Keywords: flash flood forecast; distributed hydrological model; parameter regionalization; model validation flash flood forecast; distributed hydrological model; parameter regionalization; model validation
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Wang, Y.; Liu, R.; Guo, L.; Tian, J.; Zhang, X.; Ding, L.; Wang, C.; Shang, Y. Forecasting and Providing Warnings of Flash Floods for Ungauged Mountainous Areas Based on a Distributed Hydrological Model. Water 2017, 9, 776.

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