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Water 2016, 8(3), 75; doi:10.3390/w8030075

Bayesian Theory Based Self-Adapting Real-Time Correction Model for Flood Forecasting

1
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3
Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Las Vegas, NV 89119, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Ataur Rahman
Received: 11 November 2015 / Revised: 15 February 2016 / Accepted: 23 February 2016 / Published: 26 February 2016
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2714 KB, uploaded 26 February 2016]   |  

Abstract

Real-time correction models provide the possibility to reduce uncertainties in flood prediction. However, most traditional techniques cannot accurately capture many sources of uncertainty and provide a quantitative evaluation. To account for a wide variety of uncertainties in flood forecasts and overcome the limitations of stationary samples in a changing climate, a Bayesian theory based Self-adapting, Real-time Correction Model (BSRCM) was proposed. BSRCM uses the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA (n, m)) model as the prior distribution for the flood hydrograph, and the autoregressive model or order p (AR(p)) as the likelihood function to describe the likelihood relationship between the predicted and observed discharges, on the basis the posterior distribution of real values of discharge at any step can be deduced under the framework of Bayesian theory. Combined with the Xin’anjiang hydrological model, it was applied for flood forecasting in the Misai basin in southern China. Results from this study indicate that: (1) BSRCM can achieve a good precision and perform better than AR(p) in the study region; (2) BSRCM provides not only deterministic results but also rich uncertainty information for real-time correction results, such as the mean, error variance, and confidence intervals of flow discharge at any time during the flood event; (3) BSRCM can achieve better performance with a longer lead time; (4) BSRCM can achieve a good precision even with a small sample for parameter estimates. In addition to good precision, BSRCM can also provide further scientific grounding in flood control, operations and decision making for risk management. View Full-Text
Keywords: Bayesian theory; real-time correction; flood forecast; self-adapting; Xin’anjiang model; Misai basin Bayesian theory; real-time correction; flood forecast; self-adapting; Xin’anjiang model; Misai basin
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Wang, J.; Liang, Z.; Jiang, X.; Li, B.; Chen, L. Bayesian Theory Based Self-Adapting Real-Time Correction Model for Flood Forecasting. Water 2016, 8, 75.

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