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Water 2015, 7(9), 4806-4820; doi:10.3390/w7094806

Applying a Correlation Analysis Method to Long-Term Forecasting of Power Production at Small Hydropower Plants

Institute of Hydropower and Hydroinformatics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Kwok-wing Chau
Received: 13 July 2015 / Revised: 28 August 2015 / Accepted: 28 August 2015 / Published: 2 September 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Use of Meta-Heuristic Techniques in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [864 KB, uploaded 2 September 2015]   |  

Abstract

Forecasting long-term power production of small hydropower (SHP) plants is of great significance for coordinating with large-medium hydropower (LHP) plants. Accurate forecasting can solve the problems of waste-water and abandoned electricity and ensure the safe operation of the power system. However, it faces a series of challenges, such as lack of sufficient data, uncertainty of power generation, no regularity of a single station and poor forecasting models. It is difficult to establish a forecasting model based on classical and mature prediction models. Therefore, this paper introduces a correlation analysis method for forecasting power production of SHP plants. By analyzing the correlation between SHP and LHP plants, a safe conclusion can be drawn that the power production of SHP plants show similar interval inflow to LHP plants in the same region. So a regression model is developed to forecast power production of SHP plants by using the forecasting inflow values of LHP plants. Taking the SHP plants in Yunnan province as an example, the correlation between SHP and LHP plants in a district or county are analyzed respectively. The results show that this correlation method is feasible. The proposed forecasting method has been successfully applied to forecast long-term power production of SHP plants in the 13 districts of the Yunnan Power Grid. From the results, the rationality, accuracy and generality of this method have been verified. View Full-Text
Keywords: SHP; power production; prediction; correlation analysis SHP; power production; prediction; correlation analysis
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Li, G.; Liu, C.-X.; Liao, S.-L.; Cheng, C.-T. Applying a Correlation Analysis Method to Long-Term Forecasting of Power Production at Small Hydropower Plants. Water 2015, 7, 4806-4820.

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