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Water 2015, 7(5), 1840-1865; doi:10.3390/w7051840

Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

1
and
1,2,*
1
Hydrotech Division, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, 11F., No. 97, Sec. 1, Roosevelt Rd., Taipei City 10093, Taiwan
2
Department of River and Harbor Engineering, National Taiwan Ocean University, No 2, Beining Rd., Keelung City 20224, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Kwok-wing Chau
Received: 17 March 2015 / Revised: 16 April 2015 / Accepted: 17 April 2015 / Published: 27 April 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Use of Meta-Heuristic Techniques in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [828 KB, uploaded 9 June 2015]   |  

Abstract

The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events. View Full-Text
Keywords: rainfall forecasting; flow forecasting; grey theory; geomorphology-based runoff model; flow updating algorithm rainfall forecasting; flow forecasting; grey theory; geomorphology-based runoff model; flow updating algorithm
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Ho, J.-Y.; Lee, K.T. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting. Water 2015, 7, 1840-1865.

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