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Water 2015, 7(11), 6173-6189; doi:10.3390/w7116173

Performance Assessment of Hydrological Models Considering Acceptable Forecast Error Threshold

1,2,* and 3
1
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
3
Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Miklas Scholz
Received: 13 August 2015 / Revised: 26 October 2015 / Accepted: 29 October 2015 / Published: 4 November 2015
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [909 KB, uploaded 4 November 2015]   |  

Abstract

It is essential to consider the acceptable threshold in the assessment of a hydrological model because of the scarcity of research in the hydrology community and errors do not necessarily cause risk. Two forecast errors, including rainfall forecast error and peak flood forecast error, have been studied based on the reliability theory. The first order second moment (FOSM) and bound methods are used to identify the reliability. Through the case study of the Dahuofang (DHF) Reservoir, it is shown that the correlation between these two errors has great influence on the reliability index of hydrological model. In particular, the reliability index of the DHF hydrological model decreases with the increasing correlation. Based on the reliability theory, the proposed performance evaluation framework incorporating the acceptable forecast error threshold and correlation among the multiple errors can be used to evaluate the performance of a hydrological model and to quantify the uncertainties of a hydrological model output. View Full-Text
Keywords: assessment; rainfall forecast errors; peak flood forecast errors; reliability analysis; first order second moment (FOSM); bound method; Dahuofang reservoir (DHF) assessment; rainfall forecast errors; peak flood forecast errors; reliability analysis; first order second moment (FOSM); bound method; Dahuofang reservoir (DHF)
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Dong, Q.; Lu, F. Performance Assessment of Hydrological Models Considering Acceptable Forecast Error Threshold. Water 2015, 7, 6173-6189.

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