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Water 2015, 7(10), 5258-5271; doi:10.3390/w7105258

Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

Department of Agricultural Economics, Agriculture Faculty, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, 6517838695, Iran
Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Bologna, Viale Fanin 50, Bologna 40127, Italy
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Miklas Scholz
Received: 13 July 2015 / Revised: 29 August 2015 / Accepted: 7 September 2015 / Published: 29 September 2015
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In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates. View Full-Text
Keywords: groundwater; system dynamics; modeling; climate change; economic policy groundwater; system dynamics; modeling; climate change; economic policy

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Balali, H.; Viaggi, D. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios. Water 2015, 7, 5258-5271.

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