Data-Driven Deformation Prediction of Accumulation Landslides in the Middle Qinling-Bashan Mountains Area
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Classification of Landslides Method
2.2. Model Construction Method
- Forget gate
- Input gate
- Output gate
2.3. Selection of Evaluation Indicators
3. Research Case
4. Comparative Experiments on Group Prediction
4.1. Experimental Process
4.2. Key Feature Selection
4.3. Analysis of Results and Discussion
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
- The displacement prediction model for similar-type landslides performs better in displacement prediction than the mixed-type landslide prediction model.
- The displacement prediction models for similar-type landslides and individual slope landslides tend to converge in performance. For predicting displacement in the next 12 h, the similar-type landslide model outperforms the individual slope model. The effectiveness of longer-duration predictions is closely related to the developmental stage of the predicted landslide.
- The similar-type landslide displacement prediction model can learn the sliding characteristics of landslides at different evolutionary stages, providing a scientific basis for early prediction and warning of landslides. It effectively addresses the issues of insufficient early monitoring data and low prediction accuracy in landslide monitoring.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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State of Affairs | Schematic Diagram of the Evolution of the Pattern of Disasters | Characterization |
---|---|---|
Natural state | The original slope is in its natural state, with the surface of the slope exposed, and the strongly weathered and moderately weathered surfaces of the slope are potential sliding surfaces. | |
Accelerated weathering | Accelerated weathering of slopes from surface to depth | |
Stress concentration | Concentration of stresses at the foot of slopes and gradual decrease in stability | |
Landslide formation | Sliding surface penetrates, slide falls, landslide forms. |
Name of the Landslide | Structural Composition of Matter | Landslide Size (Large, Medium, Small) | Predisposing Factors (Kinetic Causes) | Kinematic Characteristics (Gradual, Abrupt, Intermittent) | Kinetic Characterization (Traction, Nudge, Composite) | Developmental Stages (New, Resurrection) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Balipo landslide | Remnant slope product | Medium-sized | Rainfall | Abrupt | Traction | New |
Chengouwan landslide | Landslide | Minor works | Rainfall | Abrupt | Traction | New |
Hujiawan landslide | Slope failure | Minor works | Rainfall | Abrupt | Nudge | Resurrection |
Koujiayuanzi landslide | Remnant slope product | Medium-sized | Rainfall | Abrupt | Traction | Resurrection |
Lei Jiapo landslide | Slope failure | Minor works | Rainfall | Abrupt | Traction | Resurrection |
Liujiazhuang landslide | Remnant slope product | Minor works | Rainfall | Abrupt | Nudge | New |
Lvjiawan landslide | Landslide | Medium-sized | Rainfall | Abrupt | Nudge | Resurrection |
Mapoling Group 6 landslide | Remnant slope product | Medium-sized | Rainfall | Abrupt | Traction | New |
Meijiayuanzi landslide | Landslide | Medium-sized | Rainfall | Abrupt | Traction | Resurrection |
Wangjialaowuchang Group 4 landslide | Landslide | Medium-sized | Rainfall | Abrupt | Nudge | Resurrection |
Wuxuecun Group 5 landslide | Landslide | Minor works | Rainfall | Abrupt | Traction | Resurrection |
Xiajiapo landslide | Landslide | Minor works | Rainfall | Abrupt | Traction | Resurrection |
West of Yinpo Yuanzi landslide | Landslide | Minor works | Rainfall | Abrupt | Traction | Resurrection |
Classification Code | Type of Landslide | Name of the Landslide |
---|---|---|
1 | Emerging traction residual landslides | Balipo landslide, Mapoling Group 6 landslide |
2 | Emerging traction avalanche landslides | Chengouwan landslide |
3 | Emergent nudge-type residual landslides | Liujiazhuang landslide |
4 | Resurrection of a nudging avalanche-accumulated landslide | Hujiawan landslide, Wangjialaowuchang Group 4 landslide |
5 | Resurrection of a nudging debris slide | Lvjiawan landslide |
6 | Resurrection of traction residual landslides | Koujiayuanzi landslide |
7 | Resurrection of a traction avalanche landslide | Leijapo landslide, Meijiayuanzi landslide, Wuxuecun Group 5 landslide, Xiajiapo landslide, West of Yinpo Yuanzi landslide |
Experiments | Prediction of Similar Landslides | Mixed Category Landslide Prediction | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Name of the Landslide | Classification Code | Name of the Landslide | Classification Code | |
Training set | Leijiapo landslide | 7 | Ba Lipo landslide | 1 |
Meijiayuanzi landslide | 7 | Chengouwan landslide | 2 | |
Wuxuecun Group 5 landslide | 7 | Liujiazhuang landslide | 3 | |
Xiajiapo landslide | 7 | Hujiawan landslide | 4 | |
Prediction set | West of Yinpoyuanzi landslide | 7 | West of Yinpoyuanzi landslide | 7 |
Experiments | Prediction of Similar Landslides | Single-Slope Landslide Prediction | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Name of the Landslide | Classification Code | Name of the Landslide | Classification Code | |
Training set | Leijiapo landslide | 7 | West of Yinpoyuanzi landslide | 7 |
MeiJiayuanzi landslide | 7 | |||
Wuxuecun Group 5 landslide | 7 | |||
Xiajiapo landslide | 7 | |||
West of Yinpoyuanzi landslide | 7 | |||
Prediction set | West of Yinpoyuanzi landslide | 7 | West of Yinpoyuanzi landslide | 7 |
Data Item Name | Data Type | Note |
---|---|---|
Timing | Timestamp | Sampling frequency in hours |
R | Continuous data | Rainfall for the day |
R1 | Continuous data | Rainfall for the previous 1 day |
R2 | Continuous data | Rainfall for the first 2 days |
R3 | Continuous data | Rainfall for the first 3 days |
Volume | String class data | Small, medium, large |
Thicknesses | String class data | Shallow, medium, deep |
Structural of matter | String class data | Slope failure, slope remnants |
Elevation | String class data | Class I (slope ≤ 15°), Class II (15° ≤ slope ≤ 30°), Class III (35° ≤ slope ≤ 60°), Class IV (slope ≥ 60°) |
Kinetic characteristics | String class data | Towed, pushed |
Developmental stage | String class data | New, resurrection |
Fissures | Discrete ordered data | No, yes |
Group I Homogeneous Slopes | MSE | MAPE | A Set of Mixed Slopes | MSE | MAPE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Next 12 h | 5.036 | 0.010 | Next 12 h | 7.616 | 0.024 |
Next 24 h | 7.333 | 0.0142 | The next 24 h | 11.085 | 0.027 |
Next 48 h | 15.232 | 0.022 | The next 48 h | 20.670 | 0.033 |
Group II Homogeneous Slopes | MSE | MAPE | Group II Single Slope | MSE | MAPE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Next 12 h | 5.099 | 0.010 | Next 12 h | 6.069 | 0.017 |
Next 24 h | 7.242 | 0.0141 | Next 24 h | 6.397 | 0.018 |
Next 48 h | 14.928 | 0.0212 | Next 48 h | 6.110 | 0.018 |
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Ma, J.; Yang, Q.; Zhang, M.; Chen, Y.; Zhao, W.; Ouyang, C.; Ming, D. Data-Driven Deformation Prediction of Accumulation Landslides in the Middle Qinling-Bashan Mountains Area. Water 2024, 16, 464. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030464
Ma J, Yang Q, Zhang M, Chen Y, Zhao W, Ouyang C, Ming D. Data-Driven Deformation Prediction of Accumulation Landslides in the Middle Qinling-Bashan Mountains Area. Water. 2024; 16(3):464. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030464
Chicago/Turabian StyleMa, Juan, Qiang Yang, Mingzhi Zhang, Yao Chen, Wenyi Zhao, Chengyu Ouyang, and Dongping Ming. 2024. "Data-Driven Deformation Prediction of Accumulation Landslides in the Middle Qinling-Bashan Mountains Area" Water 16, no. 3: 464. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030464