Evaluating Vulnerability of Central Asian Water Resources under Uncertain Climate and Development Conditions: The Case of the Ili-Balkhash Basin

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

The  manuscript is interesting, and well written.

It can be basically published as it is, with one minor revision/improvement as follows.

Within the discussion section the authors discuss the implication glaciers' cover variation, and generally of cryospheric flows for present and future hydrology in the area (making an estimate of ca. 15% of total flow now).

However, it is not clear to me how their hydrological model considers the snow(melt) and ice contribution presently, and in case how it considers their changes in the future (e.g.  what would be ice cover ? transient snow covered area ?) From my personal experience, but I might be wrong, in this area, cryospheric hydrology and especially glacial dynamics should not be very impactant upon (present, and future) flowq regimes. Please deepen  upon such point, in model description, and discussion  

Author Response

Please see attachment. 

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

- the paper is a very sophisticating one and full of informations along the 24 pages; 

- many elements, many gauged and modelled data are presents;

- all seems to be part of any large-scale project or study;

- the local and regional authorities seems to be implicated to know which will be the future of their living space, by offering data and other type of supports; 

- the choosed area is a very representative one, knowing the past of other greatest water bodies with sources in mountainous area of Pamir (”Roof of the World”) - eg. Aral Sea/Lake;

- it remains for time to decide on success in literature of this study;

- just several technical remarks on the paper:
* in the title - lines 1-4 - authors need to think carefully which term is more adequate - conditions or scenarios, because the paper is full of different scenarios regarding the climate etc.; probably, the second; 
* lines 29-30, ”partial disappearance” seems to be an improper one; probably, ”the drastically reduction of the Aral Sea, Lake Urmia and Lake Chad surface and volume” or ”cvasi-disappearance of the Aral Sea, Lake Urmia and Lake Chad” are one best solution;
* line 88, ”Furthermore, this study is ONE OF the first to evaluate vulnerabilities ...” or ”Furthermore, this study is the first regional one to evaluate vulnerabilities ...”;
* line 94 - Fig. 1, a watershed of Ili river basin can be useful for paper reader;
* lines 96-117, sorry, but ”Study area” not representing Data/Materials and Methodology; it can be easily coupled to ”Introduction” chapter, as a second sub-chapter, after the eventually first ”Literature about water resources in endorheic areas”;
* in 2th figure, the input data (all categories of series - measured/gauged, indirect determination) line seems to be easily unclear/with problems of homogeneity; several specifications below figure or in the text-body are welcome; 
* line 146, are not the RCP's values/limits (2.6 and 8.5) easily exaggerated to 4.3oC, respectively too low for 0.5oC?; just a question; probably, several supplementary words are welcome;
* line 175-176, because flood are representing one phase of the maximum flow, but, also, a sub-phase of the general flow, and very important regarding the water volume contribution in river flow regime, it would not have been possible to couple, in any way, the ABCD(E) model with the HEC models, for example, to cover all flow modelling?; the presence of a reservoir in your system, increase the complexity of the study, because it is an attenuation factor for maximum flow phase, but also, a general flow  regulator; 
* line 261, somewhere in the text body (to sustain your affirmation, out of literature) a comparison/correlation chart/hydrograph of the Ili river flow and Balkhash Lake Level should be welcome;
* line 292 and not only (eg. Table 4 etc.), in the agricultural production, how strict the presence of rice is; it would not be possible to partially replace-it with some less water-consuming crops, at least in the upper river basin - the area of flow forming?;
* In Figure 6 and not only there, is better to avoid the double title (into figure and bellow figure); also, an X-axis logarithm, not offer-it a better visibility for low probabilities that have a major importance in water balance?;
* Figure A1, usually, the capacity curve of the lakes is a logarithmic one ...; if these two characteristic curves are correct established, the A1 Table is not necessary; 
* Figure A2, if you put the sketch of the dam there, several words about the reservoir and dam exploitation need, that make possible understanding the hydro-economic profiles of this reservoir; 
* after Figures C1 and C2, two correlation graphs between gauged and modelled flow would validate in addition the fidelity/relation quality between the two parameters;
* supplementary file is welcome.

Congrats!

Author Response

Please see the attachment 

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf