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Water 2018, 10(9), 1224; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10091224

An Integrated Statistical Method to Generate Potential Future Climate Scenarios to Analyse Droughts

1
Departamento de Investigación en Recursos Geológicos, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Urb. Alcázar del Genil, 4. Edificio Zulema Bajo, 18006 Granada, Spain
2
Departamento de Investigación en Recursos Geológicos, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Ríos Rosas, 23, 28003 Madrid, Spain
3
Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad Católica de Murcia, Campus de los Jerónimos s/n, 30107 Guadalupe, Murcia, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 9 July 2018 / Revised: 31 August 2018 / Accepted: 7 September 2018 / Published: 11 September 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate different methods to generate future potential climatic scenarios at monthly scale considering meteorological droughts. We assume that more reliable scenarios would be generated by using regional climatic models (RCMs) and statistical correction techniques that produce better approximations to the historical basic and drought statistics. A multi-objective analysis is proposed to identify the inferior approaches. Different ensembles (equifeasible and non-equifeasible) solutions are analysed, identifying their pros and cons. A sensitivity analysis of the method to spatial scale is also performed. The proposed methodology is applied in an alpine basin, the Alto Genil (southern Spain). The method requires historical climatic information and simulations provided by multiple RCMs (9 RCMs are considered in the proposed application) for a future period, assuming a potential emission scenario. We generate future series by applying two conceptual approaches, bias correction and delta change, using five statistical transformation techniques for each. The application shows that the method allows improvement of the definition of local climate scenarios from the RCM simulation considering drought statistics. The sensitivity of the results to the applied approach is analysed. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; droughts analysis; statistical corrections; multi-objective analysis; ensemble of scenarios; Alto Genil catchment climate change; droughts analysis; statistical corrections; multi-objective analysis; ensemble of scenarios; Alto Genil catchment
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Collados-Lara, A.-J.; Pulido-Velazquez, D.; Pardo-Igúzquiza, E. An Integrated Statistical Method to Generate Potential Future Climate Scenarios to Analyse Droughts. Water 2018, 10, 1224.

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