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Water 2018, 10(8), 1099; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081099

Combining Grey Relational Analysis and a Bayesian Model Averaging Method to Derive Monthly Optimal Operating Rules for a Hydropower Reservoir

1
College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2
Water Management, Rotterdam University of Applied Sciences, 3015 GG Rotterdam, The Netherlands
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 22 June 2018 / Revised: 30 July 2018 / Accepted: 8 August 2018 / Published: 17 August 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management and Governance)
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Abstract

Various regression models are currently applied to derive functional forms of operating rules for hydropower reservoirs. It is necessary to analyze and evaluate the model selecting uncertainty involved in reservoir operating rules for efficient hydropower generation. Moreover, selecting the optimal input variables from a large number of candidates to characterize an output variable can lead to a more accurate operation simulation. Therefore, this paper combined the Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) method and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to select input variables and derive the monthly optimal operating rules for a hydropower reservoir. The monthly input variables were first filtered according to the relationship between the preselected output and input variables based on the reservoir optimal deterministic trajectory using GRA. Three models, Particle Swarm Optimization-Least Squares Support Vector Machine (PSO-LSSVM), Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis (MLRA) model, were further implemented to derive individual monthly operating rules. BMA was applied to determine the final monthly operating rules by analyzing the uncertainty of selecting individual models with different weights. A case study of Xinanjiang Reservoir in China shows that the combination of the two methods can achieve high-efficiency hydropower generation and optimal utilization of water resources. View Full-Text
Keywords: grey relational analysis; input variables selection; Bayesian Model Averaging method; monthly optimal operating rules; hydropower generation; model selecting uncertainty grey relational analysis; input variables selection; Bayesian Model Averaging method; monthly optimal operating rules; hydropower generation; model selecting uncertainty
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Fang, G.; Guo, Y.; Huang, X.; Rutten, M.; Yuan, Y. Combining Grey Relational Analysis and a Bayesian Model Averaging Method to Derive Monthly Optimal Operating Rules for a Hydropower Reservoir. Water 2018, 10, 1099.

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