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Water 2018, 10(7), 910; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070910

Addressing Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Jinsha River Basin Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

1
Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China
2
Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources of China, Wuhan 430010, China
3
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 7 May 2018 / Revised: 6 July 2018 / Accepted: 6 July 2018 / Published: 10 July 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)

Abstract

Projecting future changes of streamflow in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) is important for the planning and management of the west route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). This paper presented an analysis of the implications of CMIP5 climate models on the future streamflow in the JRB, using SWAT model. Results show that: (1) In the JRB, a 10% precipitation decrease might result in a streamflow increase of 15 to 18% and a 1 °C increase in temperature might results in a 2 to 5% decrease in streamflow; (2) GFDL-ESM2M and NORESM1-M showed considerable skill in representing the observed precipitation and temperature, which can be chosen to analyze the changes in streamflow in the future; (3) The precipitation and temperature were projected to increase by 0.8 to 5.0% and 1.31 to 1.87 °C. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 4.1 to 14.3% in the upper JRB. It was excepted to change by −4.6 to 8.1% in the middle and lower JRB (MLJRB). The changes of low streamflow in the MLJRB were −5.8 to 7.4%. Therefore, the potential impact of climate on streamflow will have little effect on the planning and management of the west route of SNWTP. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; streamflow; CMIP5 climate models; Jinsha River Basin climate change; streamflow; CMIP5 climate models; Jinsha River Basin
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Yin, J.; Yuan, Z.; Yan, D.; Yang, Z.; Wang, Y. Addressing Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Jinsha River Basin Based on CMIP5 Climate Models. Water 2018, 10, 910.

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