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Water 2018, 10(7), 885; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070885 (registering DOI)

Analysis of a Stochastic Programming Model for Optimal Hydropower System Operation under a Deregulated Electricity Market by Considering Forecasting Uncertainty

1
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
3
National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
4
Lianyungang Water Resources Planning and Design Institute Co., Ltd., Lianyungang 222006, China
5
China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Yichang 443002, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 17 May 2018 / Revised: 27 June 2018 / Accepted: 30 June 2018 / Published: 2 July 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management and Governance)
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Abstract

In a deregulated electricity market, optimal hydropower operation should be achieved through informed decisions to facilitate the delivery of energy production in forward markets and energy purchase level from other power producers within real-time markets. This study develops a stochastic programming model that considers the influence of uncertain streamflow on hydropower energy production and the effect of variable spot energy prices on the cost of energy purchase (energy shortfall). The proposed model is able to handle uncertainties expressed by both a probability distribution and discretized scenarios. Conflicting decisions are resolved by maximizing the expected value of net revenue, which jointly considers benefit and cost terms under uncertainty. Methodologies are verified using a case study of the Three Gorges cascade hydropower system. The results demonstrate that optimal operation policies are derived based upon systematic evaluations on the benefit and cost terms that are affected by multiple uncertainties. Moreover, near-optimal operation policy under the case of inaccurate spot price forecasts is also analyzed. The results also show that a proper policy for guiding hydropower operation seeks the best compromise between energy production and energy purchase levels, which explores their nonlinear tradeoffs over different time periods. View Full-Text
Keywords: reservoir operation; deregulated electricity market; benefit-cost analysis; forecasting uncertainty reservoir operation; deregulated electricity market; benefit-cost analysis; forecasting uncertainty
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Xu, B.; Zhong, P.-A.; Du, B.; Chen, J.; Liu, W.; Li, J.; Guo, L.; Zhao, Y. Analysis of a Stochastic Programming Model for Optimal Hydropower System Operation under a Deregulated Electricity Market by Considering Forecasting Uncertainty. Water 2018, 10, 885.

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