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Water 2018, 10(4), 477; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040477

Assessment of Near-Term Runoff Response at a River Basin Scale in Central Vietnam Using Direct CMIP5 High-Resolution Model Outputs

1
Hydraulic Construction Institute, Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, Hanoi 116830, Vietnam
2
Graduate School of Life & Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba 305-8577, Japan
3
LEGOS Lab, Toulouse University, 31013 Toulouse, France
4
National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Hanoi 117000, Vietnam
5
Hydraulic Construction Institute, Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, Hanoi 116830, Vietnam
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 10 March 2018 / Revised: 5 April 2018 / Accepted: 11 April 2018 / Published: 13 April 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

Global warming is becoming more serious and causing changes in rainfall pattern and runoff regime in most river basins. Exploration of the changes will help develop appropriate management and adaptation strategies. This study presents an assessment of changes in rainfall and runoff in the upper Thu Bon River basin in central Vietnam in the near-term (2026–2035) climate using direct Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) high-resolution model outputs. A nearly calibration-free parameter rainfall–runoff model was employed to explore the runoff response in the study basin. Most model simulations have detected greater decreases in the near-term runoff in the dry season compared with those of any preceding decades in the baseline (1979–2008) climate, though the rainfall in this period is expected to increase slightly. Meanwhile, monsoonal season flooding has the potential to become more severe, and Japanese models project further increase in the intensity of such extreme weather events. The results also indicate that the treatment of the model physical parameterization schemes tends to contribute more sensitivity to the future projections. View Full-Text
Keywords: runoff response; near-term climate; high-resolution model; super-tank model runoff response; near-term climate; high-resolution model; super-tank model
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Nam, D.H.; Duong, P.C.; Thuan, D.H.; Mai, D.T.; Dung, N.Q. Assessment of Near-Term Runoff Response at a River Basin Scale in Central Vietnam Using Direct CMIP5 High-Resolution Model Outputs. Water 2018, 10, 477.

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