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Water 2018, 10(4), 415; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040415

Planning Water Resources in an Agroforest Ecosystem for Improvement of Regional Ecological Function Under Uncertainties

1
School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100072, China
2
Donlinks School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
3
Department of Building, Civil and Environment Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H3G 1M8, Canada
4
Fundamental College, Beijing Polytechnic, Beijing 100176, China
5
Shandong Key Laboratory of Water Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China
6
Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 28 January 2018 / Revised: 8 March 2018 / Accepted: 9 March 2018 / Published: 2 April 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management and Governance)
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Abstract

In this study, an agroforestry ecosystem project (AEP) is developed for confronting the conflict between agricultural development and forest protection. A fuzzy stochastic programming with Laplace scenario analysis (FSL) is proposed for planning water resources in an AEP issue under uncertainties. FSL can not only deal with spatial and temporal variations of hydrologic elements and meteorological conditions; but also handle uncertainties that are expressed in terms of probability, possibility distributions and fuzzy sets; meanwhile, policy scenario analysis with Laplace’s criterion (PSL) is introduced to handle probability of each scenario occurrence under the supposition of no data available. The developed FSL can be applied to an AEP issue in Xixian county, located in north of China. The result of ecological effects, water allocation patterns, pollution mitigation schemes and system benefits under various scenarios are obtained, which can support policymakers adjusting current strategy to improve regional ecological function with cost-effective and sustainable manners. Meanwhile, it can support generating a robust water plan for regional sustainability in an AEP issue under uncertainties. View Full-Text
Keywords: Laplace scenario; agroforest ecosystem; water resources management; sustainability; uncertainty Laplace scenario; agroforest ecosystem; water resources management; sustainability; uncertainty
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Zeng, X.; Chen, C.; Sheng, Y.; An, C.; Kong, X.; Zhao, S.; Huang, G. Planning Water Resources in an Agroforest Ecosystem for Improvement of Regional Ecological Function Under Uncertainties. Water 2018, 10, 415.

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