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Water 2018, 10(2), 221; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221

Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea

1
Laboratory of Maritime Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, D1 Campus Nord, Jordi Girona 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, C2 Campus Nord, Jordi Girona 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
3
GeoEcoMar, GeoEcoMar, Bucharest, 23-25, Dimitrie Onciul, Bucharest 024053, Romania
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 16 November 2017 / Revised: 12 February 2018 / Accepted: 13 February 2018 / Published: 19 February 2018
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Abstract

The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and among wave-storm components. View Full-Text
Keywords: SWAN; storminess; climate change; climate patterns; Black Sea; copula; generalized additive model SWAN; storminess; climate change; climate patterns; Black Sea; copula; generalized additive model
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Lin-Ye, J.; García-León, M.; Gràcia, V.; Ortego, M.I.; Stanica, A.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A. Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea. Water 2018, 10, 221.

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