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Atmosphere 2018, 9(3), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9030104

Verification of High-Resolution Medium-Range Precipitation Forecasts from Global Environmental Multiscale Model over China during 2009–2013

1
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2
Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 9 December 2017 / Revised: 15 February 2018 / Accepted: 3 March 2018 / Published: 13 March 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation: Measurement and Modeling)
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Abstract

Accurate and timely precipitation forecasts are a key factor for improving hydrological forecasts. Therefore, it is fundamental to evaluate the skill of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) for precipitation forecasting. In this study, the Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) model, which is widely used around Canada, was chosen as the high-resolution medium-term prediction model. Based on the forecast precipitation with the resolution of 0.24° and taking regional differences into consideration, the study explored the forecasting skill of GEM in nine drought sub-regions around China. Spatially, GEM performs better in East and South China than in the inland areas. Temporally, the model is able to produce more precise precipitation during flood periods (summer and autumn) compared with the non-flood season (winter and spring). The forecasting skill variability differs with regions, lead time and season. For different precipitation categories, GEM for trace rainfall and little rainfall performs much better than moderate rainfall and above. Overall, compared with other prediction systems, GEM is applicable for the 0–96 h forecast, especially for the East and South China in flood season, but improvement for the prediction of heavy and storm rainfall and for the inland areas should be focused on as well. View Full-Text
Keywords: global environmental multi-scale; precipitation verification; high-resolution forecast; medium-term prediction; China global environmental multi-scale; precipitation verification; high-resolution forecast; medium-term prediction; China
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Xu, H.; Wu, Z.; Luo, L.; He, H. Verification of High-Resolution Medium-Range Precipitation Forecasts from Global Environmental Multiscale Model over China during 2009–2013. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 104.

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