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Atmosphere 2016, 7(4), 52; doi:10.3390/atmos7040052

Impact of Climate Change on Natural Snow Reliability, Snowmaking Capacities, and Wind Conditions of Ski Resorts in Northeast Turkey: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach

Department of Tourism and Hotel Management, Istanbul Bilgi University, Istanbul 34060, Turkey
Department of Tourism Administration, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey
Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey
Institute of Environmental Sciences, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey
Department of Physics, Isik University, Istanbul 34980, Turkey
Department of Physics, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Daniel Scott
Received: 31 January 2016 / Revised: 10 March 2016 / Accepted: 25 March 2016 / Published: 6 April 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tourism Climatology)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [225 KB, uploaded 6 April 2016]


Many ski resorts worldwide are going through deteriorating snow cover conditions due to anthropogenic warming trends. As the natural and the artificially supported, i.e., technical, snow reliability of ski resorts diminish, the industry approaches a deadlock. For this reason, impact assessment studies have become vital for understanding vulnerability of ski tourism. This study considers three resorts at one of the rapidly emerging ski destinations, Northeast Turkey, for snow reliability analyses. Initially one global circulation model is dynamically downscaled by using the regional climate model RegCM4.4 for 1971–2000 and 2021–2050 periods along the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. Next, the projected climate outputs are converted into indicators of natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacity, and wind conditions. The results show an overall decline in the frequencies of naturally snow reliable days and snowmaking capacities between the two periods. Despite the decrease, only the lower altitudes of one ski resort would face the risk of losing natural snow reliability and snowmaking could still compensate for forming the base layer before the critical New Year’s week. On the other hand, adverse high wind conditions improve as to reduce the number of lift closure days at all resorts. Overall, this particular region seems to be relatively resilient against climate change. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; RegCM4.4; snow reliability; snowmaking; ski tourism; Turkey climate change; RegCM4.4; snow reliability; snowmaking; ski tourism; Turkey
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Demiroglu, O.C.; Turp, M.T.; Ozturk, T.; Kurnaz, M.L. Impact of Climate Change on Natural Snow Reliability, Snowmaking Capacities, and Wind Conditions of Ski Resorts in Northeast Turkey: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach. Atmosphere 2016, 7, 52.

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