China’s Energy Intensity, Determinants and Spatial Effects
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods and Variables
2.1. Methods
2.1.1. Spatial Econometric Model
2.1.2. Spatial Lag Model
2.1.3. Spatial Error Model
2.1.4. Spatial Durbin Model
2.1.5. Direct, Indirect and Spatial Spillover Effects
2.2. Variables
2.2.1. Energy Intensity
2.2.2. Per Capita GDP (GDP)
2.2.3. The Share of the Secondary Sector (Second)
2.2.4 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
2.2.5. International Trade (Trade)
2.2.6. Energy Price (Price)
2.2.7. The Share of Coal in the Energy Consumption Structure (Coal)
2.2.8. Transport Sector (Transport)
2.3. Data Sources
3. Results
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Ln(GDP) | −0.0155 (−0.2366) | −0.4322 *** (−12.7908) | 0.2684 *** (3.6007) | −0.1459 ** (−2.0390) |
Ln(Second) | 0.3022 *** (2.7020) | 0.8472 *** (13.3927) | 0.0844 (0.7654) | 0.4443 *** (6.1838) |
Ln(FDI) | −0.1401 *** (−6.5537) | −0.0210 ** (−2.1113) | −0.1526 *** (−7.3061) | −0.0230 ** (−2.5401) |
Ln(Trade) | −0.0894 *** (−3.2823) | 0.0037 (0.2110) | −0.1975 *** (−6.5975) | −0.0585 *** (−3.2614) |
Ln(Price) | 0.1061 (0.9690) | 0.2881 *** (4.8268) | 0.8762 *** (4.6610) | 0.5836 *** (6.4126) |
Ln(Coal) | 0.2772 *** (4.8085) | 0.0386 (0.9688) | 0.2035 *** (3.6106) | −0.0494 (−1.2661) |
Ln(Transport) | −0.1194 *** (−2.9935) | −0.0348 (−1.5400) | −0.0232 (−0.5789) | 0.0359 * (1.6730) |
Adjusted R2 | 0.5279 | 0.9580 | 0.5845 | 0.9672 |
Log Likelihood | −154.6280 | 438.0489 | −126.7124 | 498.8760 |
LM lag | 21.5178 *** | 29.9868 *** | 0.2714 | 0.2442 |
Robust LM lag | 8.0180 *** | 25.6892 *** | 4.0655 ** | 4.9754 ** |
LM error | 13.6086 *** | 6.1974 ** | 7.4319 *** | 0.0988 |
Robust LM error | 0.1087 | 1.8999 | 11.2260 *** | 4.8300 ** |
Variable | Rook Contiguity (Model 5) | Four-Nearest (Model 6) |
---|---|---|
Ln(GDP) | 0.0076 (0.1072) | −0.1059 (−1.4799) |
Ln(Second) | 0.4341 (6.1878) *** | 0.3616 (4.7169) *** |
Ln(FDI) | −0.0366 (−4.0168) *** | −0.0281 (−3.1434) *** |
Ln(Trade) | −0.0529 (−2.8094) ** | −0.0789 (−4.0788) *** |
Ln(Price) | 0.5930 (6.4074) *** | 0.6278 (6.6743) *** |
Ln(Coal) | −0.1504 (−3.8618) *** | −0.1752 (−4.0296) *** |
Ln(Transport) | 0.0010 (0.0482) | 0.0465 (2.0917) ** |
W × Ln(GDP) | −0.1889 (−1.2790) | −0.0488 (−0.7802) |
W × Ln(Second) | 0.6369 (4.3118) *** | 0.3556 (2.8183) *** |
W × Ln(FDI) | −0.1436 (−6.7544) *** | −0.0535 (−2.5948) *** |
W × Ln(Trade) | 0.0787 (2.0040) ** | −0.0293 (−1.0121) |
W × Ln(Price) | −0.3375 (−1.5485) | −0.1720 (−1.8505) * |
W × Ln(Coal) | 0.2709 (3.1055) *** | −0.1439 (−1.9813) ** |
W × Ln(Transport) | 0.0951 (2.1958) ** | 0.0071 (0.1763) |
ρ | 0.0110 (0.1770) | −0.1446 (−3.1556) *** |
Adjusted R2 | 0.3684 | 0.2900 |
Log Likelihood | 550.81605 | 523.50563 |
Wald test spatial lag | 102.6981 *** | 65.8544 *** |
LR test spatial lag | 100.7323 *** | 52.6266 *** |
Wald test spatial error | 107.9347 *** | 50.5973 *** |
LR test spatial error | 103.5826 *** | 49.1485 *** |
Spatial Weights | Variable | Direct Effect | Indirect Effect | Total Effect |
---|---|---|---|---|
Four-nearest | Ln(GDP) | −0.1012 (−1.4285) | −0.0318 (−0.5284) | −0.1330 * (−1.7600) |
Ln(Second) | 0.3424 *** (4.4914) | 0.2887 ** (2.5393) | 0.6312 *** (4.4249) | |
Ln(FDI) | −0.0256 *** (−2.7510) | −0.0458 ** (−2.3442) | −0.0714 *** (−3.5250) | |
Ln(Trade) | −0.0781 *** (−3.9468) | −0.0174 (−0.6511) | −0.0955 *** (−2.9218) | |
Ln(Price) | 0.6491 *** (7.0180) | −0.2455 *** (−2.6436) | 0.4036 *** (3.3038) | |
Ln(Coal) | −0.1689 *** (−3.8127) | −0.1133 * (−1.6527) | −0.2822 *** (−3.3263) | |
Ln(Transport) | 0.0463 * (1.9792) | −0.0002 (−0.0060) | 0.0460 (1.2417) | |
Rook contiguity | Ln(GDP) | 0.0089 (0.1249) | −0.1893 (−1.2046) | −0.1804 (−1.0341) |
Ln(Second) | 0.4335 *** (6.1859) | 0.6444 *** (4.2187) | 1.0779 *** (6.3163) | |
Ln(FDI) | −0.0367 *** (−4.0603) | −0.1456 *** (−6.3676) | −0.1823 *** (−6.8081) | |
Ln(Trade) | −0.0528 *** (−2.8123) | 0.0790 * (1.9716) | 0.0262 (0.5786) | |
Ln(Price) | 0.5913 *** (6.2329) | −0.3340 (−1.5149) | 0.2573 (1.0339) | |
Ln(Coal) | −0.1489 *** (−3.8173) | 0.2675 *** (2.9484) | 0.1186 (1.2777) | |
Ln(Transport) | 0.0006 (0.0290) | 0.0976 ** (2.1227) | 0.0982 ** (2.1356) |
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Jiang, L.; Ji, M. China’s Energy Intensity, Determinants and Spatial Effects. Sustainability 2016, 8, 544. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8060544
Jiang L, Ji M. China’s Energy Intensity, Determinants and Spatial Effects. Sustainability. 2016; 8(6):544. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8060544
Chicago/Turabian StyleJiang, Lei, and Minhe Ji. 2016. "China’s Energy Intensity, Determinants and Spatial Effects" Sustainability 8, no. 6: 544. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8060544