Next Article in Journal
Influence of Agricultural Practices on Biotic Production Potential and Climate Regulation Potential. A Case Study for Life Cycle Assessment of Soybean (Glycine max) in Argentina
Previous Article in Journal
Ranking Water Transparency of Dutch Stock-Listed Companies
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Sustainability 2015, 7(4), 4360-4385; doi:10.3390/su7044360

Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries

1
Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1-1PT, UK
2
Department of Social Studies, Linnaeus University, Universitetsplatsen 1, 35195Växjö, Sweden
These authors contributed equally to this work.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Marc A. Rosen
Received: 15 October 2014 / Revised: 9 March 2015 / Accepted: 1 April 2015 / Published: 14 April 2015
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [957 KB, uploaded 14 April 2015]   |  

Abstract

The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices to see whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the most accurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the Worldwide Governance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing a food riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does not seem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of political stability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annual threshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which food riots in fragile states are more likely to occur. View Full-Text
Keywords: food riots; national fragility; food price threshold; state weakness; political fragility; resource conflict food riots; national fragility; food price threshold; state weakness; political fragility; resource conflict
Figures

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Natalini, D.; Jones, A.W.; Bravo, G. Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries. Sustainability 2015, 7, 4360-4385.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Sustainability EISSN 2071-1050 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top