Rescaled Statistics and Wavelet Analysis on Agricultural Drought Disaster Periodic Fluctuations in China from 1950 to 2016
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area Description
2.2. Data
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. R/S Method
2.3.2. The Wavelet Transform
3. Results and Analysis
3.1. Analysis of the Hurst Index Change Trend of the Agricultural Drought Disaster
3.2. Analysis of the Agricultural Drought Disaster Area Variation Characteristics
3.3. Analysis of the Inundated Area of the Agricultural Drought Disaster Variation Characteristics
3.4. Analysis of the Grain Loss Variation Characteristics
4. Conclusions
- (1)
- During the study period (1950–2016), the Hurst index of the agricultural disaster area, the inundated area of agricultural drought disaster and the grain loss was 0.821, 0.874, and 0.953, respectively, indicating the agricultural drought disaster had a long-enduring characteristic in China. Since the overall trend of the agricultural drought increased in the past, it will still increase in the future.
- (2)
- According to the results of the Morlet analysis of the agricultural disaster area and the inundated area of agricultural drought disaster, we noticed that the time series of the agricultural drought had multiple time scale features. That is to say, the periodic variation on a large scale contained periodic variation on a small scale.
- (3)
- In the last 67 years, the strong wavelet energy spectrum of the agricultural disaster area, the inundated area of agricultural drought disaster, and the grain loss had an average period of approximately 16 years, 16 years, and 18 years, respectively. Furthermore, the cycle changes of the agricultural drought disaster area and the inundated area of the agricultural drought disaster had a localization characteristic before 1980, while the cycle changes of the grain loss had a localization characteristic after 1975.
- (4)
- According to the results, it was concluded that wavelet analysis can be a useful method to analyze detailed temporal patterns of agricultural drought disaster over different temporal scales. Furthermore, in our study, we only forecasted the trend of the agricultural drought disaster, and as a future work, we will use the model for forecasting the level of drought disaster in subsequent years. In addition, in this study we took the whole of China as an example; however, China has a complex climate and different plants, and as such, in a future study we will study the agricultural drought disaster at the provincial scale.
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Wang, Q.; Liu, Y.; Tong, L.; Zhou, W.; Li, X.; Li, J. Rescaled Statistics and Wavelet Analysis on Agricultural Drought Disaster Periodic Fluctuations in China from 1950 to 2016. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3257. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093257
Wang Q, Liu Y, Tong L, Zhou W, Li X, Li J. Rescaled Statistics and Wavelet Analysis on Agricultural Drought Disaster Periodic Fluctuations in China from 1950 to 2016. Sustainability. 2018; 10(9):3257. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093257
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Qian, Yangyang Liu, Linjing Tong, Weihong Zhou, Xiaoyu Li, and Jianlong Li. 2018. "Rescaled Statistics and Wavelet Analysis on Agricultural Drought Disaster Periodic Fluctuations in China from 1950 to 2016" Sustainability 10, no. 9: 3257. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093257