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Sustainability 2018, 10(3), 618; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10030618

The Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Modeling Research of Inter-Provincial Migration in China

1
School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2
College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 17 January 2018 / Revised: 5 February 2018 / Accepted: 22 February 2018 / Published: 27 February 2018
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Abstract

The national census data during 1995 and 2000 and during 2005 and 2010 are selected in this paper to make an analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of the inter-provincial population migration in China. In addition, the general regression model, the extension regression model considering the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag model are established based on the gravity model to make the regression model on China’s inter-provincial population migration over two periods of time. The results show that: (1) the inter-provincial population migration increases rapidly in size with strong geographical proximity; (2) China’s inter-provincial population migration is still in the primary stage of the general process of population migration. In other words, the inter-provincial population emigration and immigration levels have increased greatly with the economic development; (3) Statistically, the inter-provincial population migration is negatively correlated with the level of economic development in the emigrant place and the migration distance and positively correlated with the level of economic development in the immigrant place and the population scale in the emigrant and immigrant places; and (4) The spatio-temporal factor is an important explanatory variable of population migration. The introduction of the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag factor can improve the regression effect of the gravity model greatly, and the historical variable and the spatial factor have strong explanatory power for the inter-provincial population migration. View Full-Text
Keywords: migration; China; modeling; gravity model; spatial lag model migration; China; modeling; gravity model; spatial lag model
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Fan, X.; Liu, H.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, J. The Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Modeling Research of Inter-Provincial Migration in China. Sustainability 2018, 10, 618.

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