Next Article in Journal
Conifer Recruitment in Trembling Aspen (Populus Tremuloides Michx.) Stands along an East-West Gradient in the Boreal Mixedwoods of Canada
Previous Article in Journal
Changes in Income Structure in Frontier Villages and Implications for REDD+ Benefit Sharing
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Forests 2014, 5(11), 2882-2904; doi:10.3390/f5112882

Expansion of Protected Areas under Climate Change: An Example of Mountainous Tree Species in Taiwan

1
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan
2
Department of Water and Soil Conservation, National Chung-Hsing University, No. 250 Kuo Kuang Rd., Taichung 402, Taiwan
3
School of Forestry and Resource Conservation, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan
4
CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, PMB 2, Glen Osmond, SA 5064, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 20 August 2014 / Revised: 12 November 2014 / Accepted: 13 November 2014 / Published: 24 November 2014
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1567 KB, uploaded 24 November 2014]   |  

Abstract

Tree species in mountainous areas are expected to shift their distribution upward in elevation in response to climate change, calling for a potential redesign of existing protected areas. This study aims to predict whether or not the distributions of two high-mountain tree species, Abies (Abies kawakamii) and Tsuga (Tsuga chinensis var. formosana), will significantly shift upward due to temperature change, and whether current protected areas will be suitable for conserving these species. Future temperature change was projected for 15 different future scenarios produced from five global climate models. Shifts in Abies and Tsuga distributions were then predicted through the use of species distribution models (SDMs) which included occurrence data of Abies and Tsuga, as well as seasonal temperature, and elevation. The 25 km × 25 km downscaled General Circulation Model (GCMs) data for 2020–2039 produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform was adopted in this study. Habitat suitability in the study area was calculated using maximum entropy model under different climatic scenarios. A bootstrap method was applied to assess the parameter uncertainty of the maximum entropy model. In comparison to the baseline projection, we found that there are significant differences in suitable habitat distributions for Abies and Tsuga under seven of the 15 scenarios. The results suggest that mountainous ecosystems will be substantially impacted by climate change. We also found that the uncertainty originating from GCMs and the parameters of the SDM contribute most to the overall level of variability in species distributions. Finally, based on the uncertainty analysis and the shift in habitat suitability, we applied systematic conservation planning approaches to identify suitable areas to add to Taiwan’s protected area network. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; species distribution; systematic conservation planning; mountain trees; uncertainty climate change; species distribution; systematic conservation planning; mountain trees; uncertainty
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Lin, W.-C.; Lin, Y.-P.; Lien, W.-Y.; Wang, Y.-C.; Lin, C.-T.; Chiou, C.-R.; Anthony, J.; Crossman, N.D. Expansion of Protected Areas under Climate Change: An Example of Mountainous Tree Species in Taiwan. Forests 2014, 5, 2882-2904.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Forests EISSN 1999-4907 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top