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Energies 2014, 7(11), 7178-7193; doi:10.3390/en7117178

Lorenz Wind Disturbance Model Based on Grey Generated Components

1
State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2
Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 21 August 2014 / Revised: 1 October 2014 / Accepted: 27 October 2014 / Published: 7 November 2014
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wind Turbines 2014)
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Abstract

In order to meet the needs of wind speed prediction in wind farms, we consider the influence of random atmospheric disturbances on wind variations. Considering a simplified fluid convection mode, a Lorenz system can be employed as an atmospheric disturbance model. Here Lorenz disturbance is defined as the European norm of the solutions of the Lorenz equation. Grey generating and accumulated generating models are employed to explore the relationship between wind speed and its related disturbance series. We conclude that a linear or quadric polynomial generating model are optimal through the verification of short-term wind speed prediction in the Sotavento wind farm. The new proposed model not only greatly improves the precision of short-term wind speed prediction, but also has great significance for the maintenance and stability of wind power system operation. View Full-Text
Keywords: wind disturbance model; Lorenz equation; polynomial generating function; accumulated generating model; Rayleigh number; short-term wind speed prediction wind disturbance model; Lorenz equation; polynomial generating function; accumulated generating model; Rayleigh number; short-term wind speed prediction
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Zhang, Y.; Yang, J.; Wang, K.; Wang, Y. Lorenz Wind Disturbance Model Based on Grey Generated Components. Energies 2014, 7, 7178-7193.

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