Next Article in Journal
Next Article in Special Issue
Previous Article in Journal
Previous Article in Special Issue
Energies 2013, 6(2), 733-747; doi:10.3390/en6020733
Article

A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control

1
, 1
, 2
, 3,*  and 4
Received: 28 December 2012; in revised form: 24 January 2013 / Accepted: 25 January 2013 / Published: 6 February 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hybrid Advanced Techniques for Forecasting in Energy Sector)
Download PDF [334 KB, uploaded 6 February 2013]
Abstract: A new short-term probabilistic forecasting method is proposed to predict the probability density function of the hourly active power generated by a photovoltaic system. Firstly, the probability density function of the hourly clearness index is forecasted making use of a Bayesian auto regressive time series model; the model takes into account the dependence of the solar radiation on some meteorological variables, such as the cloud cover and humidity. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate the predictive probability density function of the hourly active power by applying the photovoltaic system model to the random sampling of the clearness index distribution. A numerical application demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed forecasting method.
Keywords: smart grid; photovoltaic generation; clearness index; forecasting; probability density functions; autoregressive models; Bayesian inference smart grid; photovoltaic generation; clearness index; forecasting; probability density functions; autoregressive models; Bayesian inference
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Export to BibTeX |
EndNote


MDPI and ACS Style

Bracale, A.; Caramia, P.; Carpinelli, G.; Di Fazio, A.R.; Ferruzzi, G. A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control. Energies 2013, 6, 733-747.

AMA Style

Bracale A, Caramia P, Carpinelli G, Di Fazio AR, Ferruzzi G. A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control. Energies. 2013; 6(2):733-747.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bracale, Antonio; Caramia, Pierluigi; Carpinelli, Guido; Di Fazio, Anna R.; Ferruzzi, Gabriella. 2013. "A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control." Energies 6, no. 2: 733-747.


Energies EISSN 1996-1073 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert