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J. Risk Financial Manag. 2018, 11(3), 36; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11030036

How Informative Are Earnings Forecasts?

Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.O. Box 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) was used in preparing this paper. This service and the data available thereon constitute valuable intellectual property and trade secrets of WRDS and/or its third-party suppliers.
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Received: 28 May 2018 / Revised: 22 June 2018 / Accepted: 26 June 2018 / Published: 1 July 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Econometrics)
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Abstract

We constructed forecasts of earnings forecasts using data on 406 firms and forecasts made by 5419 individuals with on average 25 forecasts per individual. We verified previously found predictors, which are the average of the most recent available forecast for each forecaster and the difference between the average and the forecast that this forecaster previously made. We extended the knowledge base by analyzing the unpredictable component of the earnings forecast. We found that for some forecasters the unpredictable component can be used to improve upon the predictable forecast, but we also found that this property is not persistent over time. Hence, a user of the forecasts cannot trust that the forecaster will remain to be of forecasting value. We found that, in general, the larger is the unpredictable component, the larger is the forecast error, while small unpredictable components can lead to gains in forecast accuracy. Based on our results, we formulate the following practical guidelines for investors: (i) for earnings analysts themselves, it seems to be the safest to not make large adjustments to the predictable forecast, unless one is very confident about the additional information; and (ii) for users of earnings forecasts, it seems best to only use those forecasts that do not differ much from their predicted values. View Full-Text
Keywords: earnings forecasts; earnings announcements; financial markets; financial analysts earnings forecasts; earnings announcements; financial markets; financial analysts
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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de Bruijn, B.; Franses, P.H. How Informative Are Earnings Forecasts? . J. Risk Financial Manag. 2018, 11, 36.

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