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J. Risk Financial Manag. 2017, 10(3), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm10030014

Safety Evaluation of Evacuation Routes in Central Tokyo Assuming a Large-Scale Evacuation in Case of Earthquake Disasters

1
Graduate School of Informatics and Engineering, University of Electro-Communications, Chofu 182-8585, Japan
2
Graduate School of Information Systems, University of Electro-Communications, Chofu 182-8585, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Xiao-Guang Yue
Received: 26 May 2017 / Revised: 19 June 2017 / Accepted: 20 June 2017 / Published: 27 June 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Management Based on Intelligent Information Processing)
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Abstract

The present study aims to conduct a quantitative evaluation of evacuation route safety using the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm for risk management in central Tokyo. Firstly, the similarity in safety was focused on while taking into consideration road blockage probability. Then, by classifying roads by means of the hierarchical cluster analysis, the congestion rates of evacuation routes using ACO simulations were estimated. Based on these results, the multiple evacuation routes extracted were visualized on digital maps by means of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and their safety was evaluated. Furthermore, the selection of safe evacuation routes between evacuation sites for cases when the possibility of large-scale evacuation after an earthquake disaster is high is made possible. As the evaluation method is based on public information, by obtaining the same geographic information as the present study, it is effective in other areas, regardless of whether the information is from the past or future. Therefore, in addition to spatial reproducibility, the evaluation method also has high temporal reproducibility. Because safety evaluations are conducted on evacuation routes based on quantified data, the selected highly safe evacuation routes have been quantitatively evaluated, and thus serve as an effective indicator when selecting evacuation routes. View Full-Text
Keywords: large-scale evacuation; evacuation route; safety evaluation; earthquake disaster; Ant Colony Optimization (ACO); Geographic Information Systems (GIS) large-scale evacuation; evacuation route; safety evaluation; earthquake disaster; Ant Colony Optimization (ACO); Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Yamamoto, K.; Li, X. Safety Evaluation of Evacuation Routes in Central Tokyo Assuming a Large-Scale Evacuation in Case of Earthquake Disasters. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2017, 10, 14.

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