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Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Pattern and Hotspot Detection of Dengue in Chachoengsao Province, Thailand
Remote Sensing and GIS Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand
Center of Excellence for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Salaya, Nakhompathom 73170, Thailand
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 190, Marseille, France
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 3 November 2010; in revised form: 20 December 2010 / Accepted: 21 December 2010 / Published: 29 December 2010
Abstract: In recent years, dengue has become a major international public health concern. In Thailand it is also an important concern as several dengue outbreaks were reported in last decade. This paper presents a GIS approach to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics. The major objective of this study was to examine spatial diffusion patterns and hotspot identification for reported dengue cases. Geospatial diffusion pattern of the 2007 dengue outbreak was investigated. Map of daily cases was generated for the 153 days of the outbreak. Epidemiological data from Chachoengsao province, Thailand (reported dengue cases for the years 1999–2007) was used for this study. To analyze the dynamic space-time pattern of dengue outbreaks, all cases were positioned in space at a village level. After a general statistical analysis (by gender and age group), data was subsequently analyzed for temporal patterns and correlation with climatic data (especially rainfall), spatial patterns and cluster analysis, and spatio-temporal patterns of hotspots during epidemics. The results revealed spatial diffusion patterns during the years 1999–2007 representing spatially clustered patterns with significant differences by village. Villages on the urban fringe reported higher incidences. The space and time of the cases showed outbreak movement and spread patterns that could be related to entomologic and epidemiologic factors. The hotspots showed the spatial trend of dengue diffusion. This study presents useful information related to the dengue outbreak patterns in space and time and may help public health departments to plan strategies to control the spread of disease. The methodology is general for space-time analysis and can be applied for other infectious diseases as well.
Keywords: dengue; spatial statistics; temporal analysis; space-time cluster; hotspot; Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
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Jeefoo, P.; Tripathi, N.K.; Souris, M. Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Pattern and Hotspot Detection of Dengue in Chachoengsao Province, Thailand. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8, 51-74.
Jeefoo P, Tripathi NK, Souris M. Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Pattern and Hotspot Detection of Dengue in Chachoengsao Province, Thailand. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2011; 8(1):51-74.
Jeefoo, Phaisarn; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar; Souris, Marc. 2011. "Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Pattern and Hotspot Detection of Dengue in Chachoengsao Province, Thailand." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 8, no. 1: 51-74.