Stroke Mortality Attributable to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution from 1990 to 2015 in China: An Age-Period-Cohort and Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Sources
2.2. Methods
3. Results
3.1. The Variation of Age, Period, and Cohort on Stroke Mortality-PM2.5
3.2. The Results of Stroke Mortality-PM2.5 from the IE Method of APC Model Analysis
3.3. The Results of Spatial Autocorrelation
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Coef | 95% CI | S.E. | RR | 95% CI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | 3.13 | (2.98, 3.28) | 0.08 | ||
Age | |||||
25–29 | −1.93 *** | (−2.47, −1.39) | 0.27 | 1.00 | |
30–34 | −1.64 *** | (−2.07, −1.21) | 0.22 | 1.33 | (1.20, 1.49) |
35–39 | −1.28 *** | (−1.64, −0.92) | 0.18 | 1.92 | (1.60, 2.29) |
40–44 | −0.76 *** | (−1.04, −0.48) | 0.14 | 3.22 | (2.48, 4.18) |
45–49 | −0.33 *** | (−0.56, −0.10) | 0.12 | 4.96 | (3.63, 6.75) |
50–54 | 0.09 | (−0.09, 0.27) | 0.09 | 7.54 | (5.26, 10.80) |
55–59 | 0.45 *** | (0.30, 0.59) | 0.07 | 10.75 | (7.24, 15.96) |
60–64 | 0.81 *** | (0.69, 0.93) | 0.06 | 15.43 | (10.18, 23.57) |
65–69 | 1.20 *** | (1.09, 1.31) | 0.06 | 22.87 | (14.88, 35.16) |
70–74 | 1.56 *** | (1.44, 1.68) | 0.06 | 32.87 | (21.54, 49.90) |
75–79 | 1.83 *** | (1.68, 1.97) | 0.07 | 42.85 | (28.79, 63.43) |
Period | |||||
1990 | −0.08 | (−0.20, 0.05) | 0.06 | 1.00 | |
1995 | −0.05 | (−0.14, 0.04) | 0.05 | 1.03 | (0.99, 1.06) |
2000 | 0.06 | (−0.01, 0.13) | 0.04 | 1.15 | (1.08, 1.21) |
2005 | 0.12 ** | (0.04, 0.19) | 0.04 | 1.22 | (1.15, 1.27) |
2010 | 0.01 | (−0.08, 0.11) | 0.05 | 1.10 | (1.06, 1.13) |
2015 | −0.06 | (−0.18, 0.06) | 0.06 | 1.02 | (1.01, 1.02) |
Cohort | |||||
1915–1919 | 0.77 *** | (0.55, 0.99) | 0.11 | 1.00 | |
1920–1924 | 0.71 *** | (0.53, 0.88) | 0.09 | 0.94 | (0.90, 0.98) |
1925–1929 | 0.64 *** | (0.49, 0.79) | 0.08 | 0.88 | (0.82, 0.94) |
1930–1934 | 0.56 *** | (0.42, 0.69) | 0.07 | 0.81 | (0.74, 0.88) |
1935–1939 | 0.47 *** | (0.33, 0.6) | 0.07 | 0.74 | (0.68, 0.80) |
1940–1944 | 0.35 *** | (0.21, 0.49) | 0.07 | 0.66 | (0.61, 0.71) |
1945–1949 | 0.21 | (0.03, 0.38) | 0.09 | 0.57 | (0.54, 0.59) |
1950–1954 | 0.12 | (−0.09, 0.33) | 0.11 | 0.52 | (0.52, 0.53) |
1955–1959 | 0.01 | (−0.24, 0.27) | 0.13 | 0.47 | (0.45, 0.49) |
1960–1964 | −0.14 | (−0.44, 0.16) | 0.15 | 0.40 | (0.37, 0.44) |
1965–1969 | −0.23 | (−0.57, 0.11) | 0.17 | 0.37 | (0.33, 0.41) |
1970–1974 | −0.35 | (−0.76, 0.07) | 0.21 | 0.33 | (0.27, 0.40) |
1975–1979 | −0.54 * | (−1.06, −0.03) | 0.26 | 0.27 | (0.20, 0.36) |
1980–1984 | −0.76 * | (−1.45, −0.06) | 0.36 | 0.22 | (0.14, 0.35) |
1985–1989 | −0.86 | (−1.80, 0.08) | 0.48 | 0.20 | (0.10, 0.40) |
1990–1994 | −0.95 | (−2.70, 0.79) | 0.89 | 0.18 | (0.04, 0.82) |
Deviance | 0.81 | ||||
AIC | 5.94 | ||||
BIC | −150.02 |
Year | Moran’s I | Z Score | p |
---|---|---|---|
1990 | 0.55 | 7.36 | <0.001 |
1995 | 0.53 | 7.15 | <0.001 |
2000 | 0.54 | 7.34 | <0.001 |
2005 | 0.44 | 6.12 | <0.001 |
2010 | 0.44 | 6.09 | <0.001 |
2015 | 0.39 | 5.35 | <0.001 |
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Luo, L.; Jiang, J.; Zhang, G.; Wang, L.; Wang, Z.; Yang, J.; Yu, C. Stroke Mortality Attributable to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution from 1990 to 2015 in China: An Age-Period-Cohort and Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 772. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070772
Luo L, Jiang J, Zhang G, Wang L, Wang Z, Yang J, Yu C. Stroke Mortality Attributable to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution from 1990 to 2015 in China: An Age-Period-Cohort and Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14(7):772. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070772
Chicago/Turabian StyleLuo, Lisha, Junfeng Jiang, Ganshen Zhang, Lu Wang, Zhenkun Wang, Jin Yang, and Chuanhua Yu. 2017. "Stroke Mortality Attributable to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution from 1990 to 2015 in China: An Age-Period-Cohort and Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, no. 7: 772. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070772