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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14(3), 262; doi:10.3390/ijerph14030262

Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics

1
College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China
2
College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China
These authors contributed equally to this work.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Paul B. Tchounwou
Received: 20 December 2016 / Revised: 26 January 2017 / Accepted: 16 February 2017 / Published: 4 March 2017
(This article belongs to the Section Global Health)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2554 KB, uploaded 4 March 2017]   |  

Abstract

Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)4 model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends. View Full-Text
Keywords: echinococcosis; grey system theory; grey forecasting model; dynamic epidemic model echinococcosis; grey system theory; grey forecasting model; dynamic epidemic model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, L.; Wang, L.; Zheng, Y.; Wang, K.; Zhang, X.; Zheng, Y. Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 262.

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