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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14(11), 1386; doi:10.3390/ijerph14111386

Forecasting the Water Demand in Chongqing, China Using a Grey Prediction Model and Recommendations for the Sustainable Development of Urban Water Consumption

1
College of Rongzhi, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 401320, China
2
Chongqing Key Laboratory of Electronic Commerce & Supply Chain System, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 17 September 2017 / Revised: 28 October 2017 / Accepted: 30 October 2017 / Published: 15 November 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decision Models in Green Growth and Sustainable Development)
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Abstract

High accuracy in water demand predictions is an important basis for the rational allocation of city water resources and forms the basis for sustainable urban development. The shortage of water resources in Chongqing, the youngest central municipality in Southwest China, has significantly increased with the population growth and rapid economic development. In this paper, a new grey water-forecasting model (GWFM) was built based on the data characteristics of water consumption. The parameter estimation and error checking methods of the GWFM model were investigated. Then, the GWFM model was employed to simulate the water demands of Chongqing from 2009 to 2015 and forecast it in 2016. The simulation and prediction errors of the GWFM model was checked, and the results show the GWFM model exhibits better simulation and prediction precisions than those of the classical Grey Model with one variable and single order equation GM(1,1) for short and the frequently-used Discrete Grey Model with one variable and single order equation, DGM(1,1) for short. Finally, the water demand in Chongqing from 2017 to 2022 was forecasted, and some corresponding control measures and recommendations were provided based on the prediction results to ensure a viable water supply and promote the sustainable development of the Chongqing economy. View Full-Text
Keywords: water demand; grey water forecasting model (GWFM); simulation and prediction; Chongqing economy water demand; grey water forecasting model (GWFM); simulation and prediction; Chongqing economy
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Wu, H.; Zeng, B.; Zhou, M. Forecasting the Water Demand in Chongqing, China Using a Grey Prediction Model and Recommendations for the Sustainable Development of Urban Water Consumption. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 1386.

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