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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14(11), 1307; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111307

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

1
School of Economic Management, Southwest Jiao tong University, Chengdu 610031, China
2
Research Center of the Economy of the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
3
School of Economics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
4
Chongqing Key Laboratory of Electronic Commerce & Supply Chain System, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 19 September 2017 / Revised: 17 October 2017 / Accepted: 25 October 2017 / Published: 27 October 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decision Models in Green Growth and Sustainable Development)
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Abstract

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. View Full-Text
Keywords: sustainable development; wastewater; pollution; grey prediction; GM (1,1) model; countermeasures sustainable development; wastewater; pollution; grey prediction; GM (1,1) model; countermeasures
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Li, Y.; Huang, S.; Qu, X. Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 1307.

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