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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14(10), 1192; doi:10.3390/ijerph14101192

Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005–2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model

1,2
,
3,4
and
5,*
1
School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan 750004, Ningxia, China
2
School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Ningxia Normal University, Guyuan 756000, Ningxia, China
3
School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
4
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
5
College of Science, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 13 August 2017 / Revised: 20 September 2017 / Accepted: 30 September 2017 / Published: 7 October 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural Hazards and Public Health: A Systems Approach)
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Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB), an air-borne infectious disease, is a major public-health problem in China. The reported number of the active tuberculosis cases is about one million each year. The morbidity data for 2005–2012 reflect that the difference in morbidity based on age group is significant, thus the role of age-structure on the transmission of TB needs to be further developed. In this work, based on the reported data and the observed morbidity characteristics, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with age groupings, involving three categories: children, the middle-aged, and senior to investigate the role of age on the transmission of tuberculosis in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016. Then, we evaluated the parameters by the Least Square method and simulated the model and it had good alignment with the reported infected TB data in Mainland China. Furthermore, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 1.7858, with an obtained 95% confidence interval for R0 of (1.7752, 1.7963) by Latin hypercube sampling, and we completed a sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of some parameters. Our study demonstrates that diverse age groups have different effects on TB. Two effective measures were found that would help reach the goals of theWorld Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy: an increase in the recovery rate and the reduction in the infectious rate of the senior age group. View Full-Text
Keywords: tuberculosis; age group; basic reproduction number; global stability; data fitting; uncertainty and sensitivity analysis tuberculosis; age group; basic reproduction number; global stability; data fitting; uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
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Zhao, Y.; Li, M.; Yuan, S. Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005–2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 1192.

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