Next Article in Journal
Breakfast and Other Meal Consumption in Adolescents from Southern Poland
Previous Article in Journal
Active Traveling and Its Associations with Self-Rated Health, BMI and Physical Activity: A Comparative Study in the Adult Swedish Population
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13(5), 454; doi:10.3390/ijerph13050454

The Role of Influenza in the Delay between Low Temperature and Ischemic Heart Disease: Evidence from Simulation and Mortality Data from Japan

1
School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, 60 Musk Avenue, Brisbane QLD 4064, Australia
2
Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan
3
Faculty of Health and Sport Science, The University of Tsukuba, Comprehensive Research Building D, 1-1-1 Tennoudai, Tsukuba 305-8577, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Paul B. Tchounwou
Received: 22 January 2016 / Revised: 22 March 2016 / Accepted: 21 April 2016 / Published: 28 April 2016
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2161 KB, uploaded 28 April 2016]   |  

Abstract

Many studies have found that cardiovascular deaths mostly occur within a few days of exposure to heat, whereas cold-related deaths can occur up to 30 days after exposure. We investigated whether influenza infection could explain the delayed cold effects on ischemic heart diseases (IHD) as they can trigger IHD. We hypothesized two pathways between cold exposure and IHD: a direct pathway and an indirect pathway through influenza infection. We created a multi-state model of the pathways and simulated incidence data to examine the observed delayed patterns in cases. We conducted cross-correlation and time series analysis with Japanese daily pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality data to help validate our model. Simulations showed the IHD incidence through the direct pathway occurred mostly within 10 days, while IHD through influenza infection peaked at 4–6 days, followed by delayed incidences of up to 20–30 days. In the mortality data from Japan, P&I lagged IHD in cross-correlations. Time series analysis showed strong delayed cold effects in the older population. There was also a strong delay on intense days of influenza which was more noticeable in the older population. Influenza can therefore be a plausible explanation for the delayed association between cold exposure and cardiovascular mortality. View Full-Text
Keywords: cold; temperature; ischemic heart disease; influenza; mortality cold; temperature; ischemic heart disease; influenza; mortality
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Supplementary material

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Imai, C.; Barnett, A.G.; Hashizume, M.; Honda, Y. The Role of Influenza in the Delay between Low Temperature and Ischemic Heart Disease: Evidence from Simulation and Mortality Data from Japan. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 454.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top