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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13(11), 1052; doi:10.3390/ijerph13111052

Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in China from 1988 to 2013: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Government

1
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, No. 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
2
Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, No. 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
3
Department of Statistics and Management, School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, 206 Optical Valley Avenue, Wuhan 430205, China
4
Institute of Health Finance and Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, 39 Xueyuan South Road, Beijing 100081, China
5
Institute of National Health and Development, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 777 Guoding Road, Shanghai 200433, China
6
School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, No. 9 Lvshun South Road, Dalian 116044, China
7
Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, No. 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Anthony R. Mawson
Received: 29 August 2016 / Revised: 29 August 2016 / Accepted: 18 September 2016 / Published: 28 October 2016
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [956 KB, uploaded 28 October 2016]   |  

Abstract

Background: As lung cancer has shown a continuously increasing trend in many countries, it is essential to stay abreast of lung cancer mortality information and take informed actions with a theoretical basis derived from appropriate and practical statistical methods. Methods: Age-specific rates were collected by gender and region (urban/rural) and analysed with descriptive methods and age-period-cohort models to estimate the trends in lung cancer mortality in China from 1988 to 2013. Results: Descriptive analysis revealed that the age-specific mortality rates of lung cancer in rural residents increased markedly over the last three decades, and there was no obvious increase in urban residents. APC analysis showed that the lung cancer mortality rates significantly increased with age (20–84), rose slightly with the time period, and decreased with the cohort, except for the rural cohorts born during the early years (1909–1928). The trends in the patterns of the period and cohort effects showed marked disparities between the urban and rural residents. Conclusions: Lung cancer mortality remains serious and is likely to continue to rise in China. Some known measures are suggested to be decisive factors in mitigating lung cancer, such as environmental conservation, medical security, and tobacco control, which should be implemented more vigorously over the long term in China, especially in rural areas. View Full-Text
Keywords: age-period-cohort models; lung cancer mortality; air pollution; medical security; tobacco control age-period-cohort models; lung cancer mortality; air pollution; medical security; tobacco control
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Wang, L.; Yu, C.; Liu, Y.; Wang, J.; Li, C.; Wang, Q.; Wang, P.; Wu, S.; Zhang, Z.-J. Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in China from 1988 to 2013: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Government. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 1052.

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