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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(8), 9750-9767; doi:10.3390/ijerph120809750

Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model

1
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China
2
School of Sciences, Southwest Petroleum University, No.8, Xindu Avenue, Xindu District, Chengdu 610500, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Paul B. Tchounwou
Received: 15 June 2015 / Revised: 6 August 2015 / Accepted: 12 August 2015 / Published: 18 August 2015
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Abstract

In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number RH0 = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing. View Full-Text
Keywords: mathematical modeling; pandemic influenza; voluntary self-isolation; antiviralprophylaxis; household reproduction number mathematical modeling; pandemic influenza; voluntary self-isolation; antiviralprophylaxis; household reproduction number
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, Q.; Wang, D. Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 9750-9767.

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