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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(3), 2837-2869; doi:10.3390/ijerph120302837

Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

1
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box. 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
2
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping SE-60176, Sweden
3
Department of Health Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), 70701 Kuopio, Finland
4
Department of Air Pollution and Noise, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, 4404 Nydalen, 0403 Oslo, Norway
5
National Pollen and Aerobiological Research Unit, Institute of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Worcester WR2 6AJ, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Michael Breen
Received: 10 November 2014 / Revised: 9 February 2015 / Accepted: 25 February 2015 / Published: 4 March 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Pollution Modeling)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3476 KB, uploaded 4 March 2015]   |  

Abstract

Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: integrated assessments; air pollution; health effects; climate change; future anthropogenic emissions; population developments; infiltration integrated assessments; air pollution; health effects; climate change; future anthropogenic emissions; population developments; infiltration
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Geels, C.; Andersson, C.; Hänninen, O.; Lansø, A.S.; Schwarze, P.E.; Skjøth, C.A.; Brandt, J. Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 2837-2869.

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