A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Search Strategy and Selection Criteria
2.2. Data Extraction
2.3. Quality Assessment
2.4. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Study Inclusions
3.2. The Association Analysis between Temperatures and OR of Dengue
Study | OR | 95% CI | |
---|---|---|---|
Tmin | |||
Promprou et al. [27] | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
Hurtado-Daiz et al. [29] | 1.04 | 1.00 | 1.08 |
Hurtado-Daiz et al. [29] | 1.06 | 1.02 | 1.10 |
Chowell et al. [28] | 1.62 | 1.53 | 1.71 |
Hsieh et al. [33] | 1.19 | 0.96 | 1.48 |
Lu et al. [14] | 1.42 | 1.26 | 1.57 |
Lu et al. [14] | 1.37 | 1.23 | 1.51 |
Chen et al. [34] | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.18 |
Chen et al. [34] | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.75 |
Sriprom et al. [35] | 2.69 | 2.44 | 2.97 |
Colon- González et al. [36] | 1.08 | 1.03 | 1.13 |
Gharbi et al. [37] | 1.11 | 0.98 | 1.27 |
Pinto et al. [40] | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.45 |
Gomes et al. [42] | 1.45 | 1.34 | 1.58 |
Gomes et al. [42] | 0.89 | 0.87 | 0.92 |
Cheong et al. [47] | 1.14 | 1.04 | 1.46 |
Huang et al. [49] | 1.64 | 1.01 | 2.67 |
Li et al. [50] | 1.10 | 1.08 | 1.12 |
Ibarra et al. [52] | 1.02 | 0.98 | 1.09 |
Fan et al. [53] | 1.83 | 1.50 | 2.17 |
Wang et al. [54] | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.88 |
Overall | 1.30 | 1.21 | 1.38 |
Tmean | |||
Promprou et al. [27] | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.44 |
Chowell et al. [28] | 2.84 | 2.66 | 2.96 |
Arcari et al. [30] | 1.49 | 1.38 | 1.60 |
Hsieh et al. [33] | 1.36 | 1.21 | 1.52 |
Wu et al. [12] | 1.95 | 1.32 | 2.58 |
Gharbi et al. [37] | 1.26 | 1.03 | 1.53 |
Pham et al. [39] | 1.39 | 1.25 | 1.55 |
Earnest et al. [41] | 1.20 | 1.14 | 1.25 |
Hii et al. [44] | 1.31 | 1.22 | 1.40 |
Hii et al. [44] | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.15 |
Hii et al. [44] | 1.46 | 1.36 | 1.56 |
Hii et al. [44] | 1.39 | 1.30 | 1.47 |
Goto et al. [48] | 1.18 | 1.04 | 1.8 |
Goto et al. [48] | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.01 |
Goto et al. [48] | 1.64 | 1.36 | 1.92 |
Lowe et al. [51] | 1.65 | 1.55 | 1.79 |
Overall | 1.35 | 1.18 | 1.52 |
Tmax | |||
Chowell et al. [28] | 2.00 | 1.89 | 2.11 |
Brunkard et al. [31] | 1.03 | 1.00 | 1.05 |
Hsieh et al. [33] | 2.33 | 1.89 | 2.42 |
Colon- González et al. [36] | 1.13 | 0.99 | 1.27 |
Pinto et al. [40] | 1.20 | 1.11 | 1.33 |
Gomes et al. [42] | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.12 |
Hu et al. [45] | 1.61 | 1.03 | 2.41 |
Karim et al. [46] | 1.01 | 0.93 | 1.10 |
Karim et al. [46] | 1.09 | 1.01 | 1.17 |
Karim et al. [46] | 1.14 | 1.07 | 1.21 |
Overall | 1.29 | 1.10 | 1.48 |
Temperatures p | Lag | Altitude | Method | Climatic Zone | Largest Monte Carlo SE (p) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tmin | Unadjusted p | 0.889 | 0.500 | 0.667 | 0.889 | 0.1034 |
Adjusted p | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
Tmax | Unadjusted p | 0.333 | 0.667 | 1.000 | 0.333 | 0.2191 |
Adjusted p | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
Tmean | Unadjusted p | 0.822 | 0.592 | 0.557 | -- | 0.0050 |
Adjusted p | 0.991 | 0.933 | 0.894 | -- |
3.3. Meta-Analysis of p-Values and Publication Bias Test
Temperatures | Studies | χ2 | p_Value | Two-Tailed p |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tmin | 7 [16,17,26,27,31,38,43] | 33.591478 | 0.00021655 | 0.000433 |
Tmax | 7 [16,17,26,27,38,43,47] | 53.472649 | 6.321 e−6 | 1.26 e−5 |
Tmean | 6 [16,17,26,27,32,43,] | 29.511036 | 0.00025784 | 0.000516 |
Temperatures | Statistic | Coef. | Std. Err. | t | p | 95% CI | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tmin | Slope | 0.0695253 | 0.030069 | 2.31 | 0.034 | 0.00608 | 0.13296 |
bias | 4.9533650 | 2.930330 | 1.69 | 0.109 | −1.22903 | 11.13576 | |
Tmax | Slope | 0.0407122 | 0.123009 | 0.33 | 0.750 | −0.25015 | 0.33158 |
bias | 3.8721170 | 4.255641 | 0.91 | 0.392 | −6.19087 | 13.93511 | |
Tmean | Slope | 0.3523181 | 0.088274 | 3.99 | 0.001 | 0.16288 | 0.54164 |
bias | −0.7215385 | 3.319929 | −0.22 | 0.831 | −7.84207 | 6.39934 |
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Files
Supplementary File 1Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Fan, J.; Wei, W.; Bai, Z.; Fan, C.; Li, S.; Liu, Q.; Yang, K. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100001
Fan J, Wei W, Bai Z, Fan C, Li S, Liu Q, Yang K. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2015; 12(1):1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100001
Chicago/Turabian StyleFan, Jingchun, Wanxia Wei, Zhenggang Bai, Chunling Fan, Shulan Li, Qiyong Liu, and Kehu Yang. 2015. "A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12, no. 1: 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100001