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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(1), 1-15; doi:10.3390/ijerph120100001

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change

1,2,3,4,†
,
5,†
,
2,3
,
6
,
7
,
4,8,* and 1,2,3,*
1
First Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 1 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
2
Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
3
Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
4
State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, No. 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
5
University Hospital of Gansu Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 732 Jiayuguan West Road, Chenguang District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China
6
Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Gansu Provincial Cancer Hospital, No. 2 Xiaoxihu East Street, Qilihe District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730050, China
7
Department of Ultrasound, People's Hospital of Gansu Province, No. 204 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
8
Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, No. 866 Yuhangtang Road, Xihu District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China
These authors contributed equally to this work.
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Jeffrey Shaman
Received: 16 September 2014 / Accepted: 8 December 2014 / Published: 23 December 2014
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Determinants of Infectious Disease Transmission)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [814 KB, uploaded 23 December 2014]   |  

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) is the most serious mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and is significantly affected by temperature. Although associations between DF and temperatures have been reported repeatedly, conclusions have been inconsistent. Six databases were searched up to 23 March 2014, without language and geographical restrictions. The articles that studied the correlations between temperatures and dengue were selected, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1589 identified articles, 137 were reviewed further, with 33 satisfying inclusion criteria. The closest associations were observed between mean temperature from the included studies (23.2–27.7 °C) and DF (OR 35.0% per 1 °C; 95% CI 18.3%–51.6%) positively. Additionally, minimum (18.1–24.2 °C) (29.5% per 1 °C; 20.9%–38.1%) and maximum temperature (28.0–34.5 °C) (28.9%; 10.3%–47.5%) were also associated with increased dengue transmission. The OR of DF incidence increased steeply from 22 °C to 29 °C, suggesting an inflexion of DF risk between these lower and upper limits of DF risk. This discovery is helpful for government decision-makers focused on preventing and controlling dengue in areas with temperatures within this range. View Full-Text
Keywords: dengue fever (DF); temperature; correlation; odds ratio (OR); systematic review; meta-analysis dengue fever (DF); temperature; correlation; odds ratio (OR); systematic review; meta-analysis
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Fan, J.; Wei, W.; Bai, Z.; Fan, C.; Li, S.; Liu, Q.; Yang, K. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 1-15.

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