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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11(4), 3982-3994; doi:10.3390/ijerph110403982
Article

The Lag Effects and Vulnerabilities of Temperature Effects on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in a Subtropical Climate Zone in China

1,2,†
, 1,2,†,*  and 3,*
1 State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 2 Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China 3 School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4059, Australia These authors contributed equally to this work.
* Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 23 January 2014 / Revised: 19 March 2014 / Accepted: 28 March 2014 / Published: 11 April 2014
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Abstract

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.
Keywords: extreme temperature; cardiovascular disease; heat-related; cold-related; lag effect extreme temperature; cardiovascular disease; heat-related; cold-related; lag effect
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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MDPI and ACS Style

Huang, J.; Wang, J.; Yu, W. The Lag Effects and Vulnerabilities of Temperature Effects on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in a Subtropical Climate Zone in China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 3982-3994.

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