Next Article in Journal
Previous Article in Journal
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11(3), 3108-3117; doi:10.3390/ijerph110303108
Article

Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China

,
 and *
Received: 9 January 2014; in revised form: 22 February 2014 / Accepted: 5 March 2014 / Published: 13 March 2014
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [240 KB, uploaded 19 June 2014]   |   Browse Figures
Abstract: This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time.
Keywords: HFMD; the basic reproductive number; Chi-square test; goodness of fit HFMD; the basic reproductive number; Chi-square test; goodness of fit
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Export to BibTeX |
EndNote


MDPI and ACS Style

Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, X. Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 3108-3117.

AMA Style

Li Y, Zhang J, Zhang X. Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2014; 11(3):3108-3117.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Li, Yong; Zhang, Jinhui; Zhang, Xinan. 2014. "Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 11, no. 3: 3108-3117.



Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert