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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11(3), 3108-3117; doi:10.3390/ijerph110303108
Article

Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China

,
 and *
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 9 January 2014 / Revised: 22 February 2014 / Accepted: 5 March 2014 / Published: 13 March 2014
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Abstract

This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time.
Keywords: HFMD; the basic reproductive number; Chi-square test; goodness of fit HFMD; the basic reproductive number; Chi-square test; goodness of fit
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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MDPI and ACS Style

Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, X. Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 3108-3117.

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