Next Article in Journal
Female Media Use Behavior and Agreement with Publicly Promoted Agenda-Specific Health Messages
Previous Article in Journal
Relationship between Caregivers’ Smoking at Home and Urinary Levels of Cotinine in Children
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11(12), 12514-12531; doi:10.3390/ijerph111212514

The Application of Model Life Table Systems in China: Assessment of System Bias and Error

1
and
1,2,*
1
School of Public Health, Wuhan University, No. 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
2
Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, No. 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 5 September 2014 / Revised: 24 November 2014 / Accepted: 25 November 2014 / Published: 1 December 2014
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1171 KB, uploaded 1 December 2014]   |  

Abstract

and projection. Although China is the world's most populous country with approximately a fifth of the world's population, none of the empirical tables from mainland China were used in calibrating the existing models. In this paper, we applied recent three model life table systems with different inputs to China mortality data to investigate whether or not these systems truly reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological patterns and whether or not system biases exist. The resulting residuals show that, in most cases, the male infant mortality rate (1q0), adult mortality rate (45q15) and old age mortality rate (20q60) have a strong bias towards being overestimated and the life expectancy at birth (e0) bias is underestimated. We also give the detailed results for each case. Furthermore, we found that the average relative errors (AREs) for females are more than those for males for e0, 45q15 and 20q60, but for 1q0, males have larger AREs in the Wilmoth and Murray systems. We also found that the urban population has more errors than the rural population in almost all cases. Finally, by comparing the AREs with 10 other countries, we found the errors for China are more than those for other countries in most cases. It is concluded that these existing model life table systems cannot accurately reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution when applied to China on the basis of 5q0. View Full-Text
Keywords: model life table system; the infant mortality rate; adult mortality rate; the old mortality rate; life expectancy at birth; the average relative error model life table system; the infant mortality rate; adult mortality rate; the old mortality rate; life expectancy at birth; the average relative error
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Hu, S.; Yu, C. The Application of Model Life Table Systems in China: Assessment of System Bias and Error. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 12514-12531.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top